12:25 BST - ES and SPX Update

Its early to do so, but looking at the overnight action in the futures, it can be counted as a complete zig zag up from yesterday's lows. Here's the 5 min chart of ES:

ES 5 min chart:

As noted, however, it could just be the first zig zag in a double zig zag, especially if we're in a 2nd wave correction of the entire decline from 1131.23 (see the count on the chart of Option 1 for SPX) rather than a 4th wave correction.

During yesterday's session I posted a possible complete zig zag count for SPX and here is the updated chart:

SPX 1 min - complete zig zag from 1010.91:

Obviously, the high of 1030.32 has to remain intact for this count to remain valid.

Naturally, there are many ways to count the move off the low. Here are two on SPX which anticipate more upside to come (and would likely mean a double zig zag playing out in the futures):

SPX 1 min - single zig zag with [C] in progress as an impulse or ending diagonal:

SPX 1 min - double or single zig zag with [X] or [B] in progress as a triangle:

With the jobs number coming out before the cash open, this thing could go either way - best therefore, to wait and see once things settle down after the number, but perhaps we'll find out today whether we're in a deep 2nd wave correction of the decline from 1131.23, a shallower 2nd wave correction of the decline from 1082.60, a 4th wave correction or a rally that's going to take us back above 1131.23 (see last night's SPX update).

 

11:14 BST - Dollar Update

Here's the daily ichimoku chart of the dollar:

You can see that it is still in an uptrend, but, the warnings of a possible trend change shown in the 26 June update, remain and have increased: price is below the turning and standard lines, the turning line is below the standard line and the lagging line is below price and slipped below its first line of support from the turning line. As long as this persists, the shorter term trend is down, even though the daily uptrend is intact.

You can see that price is now in the cloud and is also in the middle of an area of price congestion. The lagging line is coming down to its next area of support, the standard line - if the uptrend is to continue, these support areas will  hold. 

What we need to see is price move back up above the cloud, getting above the turning and standard lines. I'll be keeping a close eye on the lagging line because even if price does manage to move up as described, if the lagging line can't get back above the price line, that would be a warning that the move up in price may fail.

At the moment, the action here is consistent with a 4th wave pullback as shown on my currently favoured count.

If price gets below the cloud and the lagging line loses support from the standard line and heads down to the cloud, then, provided the lagging line gets support there, we may see things turn back up, as happened in December 2009 (see the highlighted circles on the chart).

Such price action would probably be too much of a pullback for a 4th wave and is likely to mean that intermediate wave (2) is playing out as highlighted in my last update (its Option 1B on the Dollar page).

On the 60 min timeframe, things still look decidedly bearish:

60 min ichimoku:

Yesterday's decline took price and the lagging line well below the cloud. Since yesterday's low, price has only managed to go sideways. Its flip flopping above and below the turning line at the moment, having moved above it earlier.  

So, currently, there's no sign of a trend change on this timeframe. 

At the moment, there is a risk that a new low, which would look like 5 waves down from where I have the (x) wave high, may be playing out, meaning either we are in a (c) wave down from there, so we'd be at the end of an (a)-(b)-(c) correction from 7 June instead of the (w)-(x)-(y) I've labelled (see the alternative numbered 1 in my last update), or there's the even more bearish possibility that its only wave a of (y) (see the alternative numbered 2 in the last update)

What I'd need to see to start thinking we might reverse this donwtrend is price move more convincingly above the turning line and the turning line start to point upwards. Any rally in price must move the lagging line above the price line, otherwise its not going to be convincing and would suggest to me that the rally will likely fail. Of course, even if these things happen, it will all be happening below the cloud, so would only be initial signs of a trend change, not a confirmation - still tradeable to the upside, but with caution of course.

9:27 BST - SPX Ichimoku Update

Here is how things look on the daily and 60 min ichimoku charts since I last looked at them on 23 June (see here):

Daily ichimoku:

The bearishness in this chart has been maintained. The turning line (blue), which had moved above the standard line (red) did turn back down and should fall back below the standard line soon. Essentially, everything looks as it should in a downtrend and on this timeframe, there is no sign yet of an end to it.

I've highlighted the areas of price congestion which represent support - we are right in the middle of it now. Prices may therefore chop around here for a bit, but if things are really bearish, as the ichimoku chart suggests, they may just fall right through into the void highlighted in blue, where there is very little support on this timeframe, down to the 950 level.

Looking at the 60 min chart:

The signs of a change in trend from up to down that were appearing on 23 June, did play out. Prices did attempt to rally back up, but found resistance at the turning line and the lagging line just failed to get above the price line, which, as mentioned on 23 June, would probably mean that the rally in price would fail.

Everything is firmly in a bearish configuration. The turning line has been doing what it should in a downtrend - providing the first line of resistance to price. If price breaks above it, then the next line of resistance should come from the standard line. I've also highlighted in green the areas of price congestion which are likely areas of resistance on normal TA and which should hold price back in a downtrend.

So, despite yesterday's recovery, there is nothing on this chart that suggests the downtrend is over. Warnings that it is will start to flash if price gets above the turning and standard lines and the lagging line gets above the price line. These signs will be something to take heed of, but if price remains below the cloud while all this is happening, it would only signify a temporary halt of downward action and not a change in trend.

21:35 BST - SPX Update

The bottom that was expected does appear to have occurred today, but whether we are now in the process of retracing the whole of the decline from 1131.23 to 1010.91 in a 2nd wave or a substantially smaller portion of it in either a 2nd or 4th wave (or the whole of the decline from 1219.80 - see Option 4 below) remains undecided - see my post from this morning describing what a bottom in the counts I am following might mean. 

Here's how each count looks at the moment - remember, any one of the counts shown could apply to each of the Options (as to which, see the 60 min counts page for context). I've simply shown the different counts on the charts of the different Options for illustration purposes.

Option 1 - Wave (ii) of [iii] topped at 1131.23

7 min chart:

On this count, the low today completed 5 waves down from 1131.23. This means we should see a substantial retracement either in a 2nd wave (on this Option) or a (b) wave (see Option 4 for example, where 5 waves down would complete wave (a))

Obviously, on this count, the low of today has to remain intact, otherwise, one of the other counts is probably in play.

I've labelled the rally so far as waves [A] and [B] of a zig zag, but if its a wave ii as on this Option, its more likely to be a double zig zag or we're just seeing the initial waves of wave [A]. 

A likely target area for wave ii is the 61.8% retracement level at about 1085, which you can see from the chart, is the top of an area of resistance starting at about 1070.

Option 2 - Wave [ii] topped at 1131.23

7 min chart:

I've labelled the rally from today's low as waves (A) nd (B) of a zig zag on this count. The (C) wave should get it to around the 38.2% retracement level, just below an area of resistance.

As this is wave [4], it can't end above the wave [1] low at 1074.63. If it does, then this count is invalidated.

I showed ealier a possible complete single zig zag where wave (C) was an ending diagonal - if we take out today's low without a further 5 wave rally, then that is likely what we have seen.

Option 3 - Wave [iv] of an ending diagonal completed at 1131.23

7 min chart:

The comments made in respect of the count shown in the chart of Option 2 apply here also, with the same invalidation point.

If the alternative I've indicated on the chart applies, on this Option it would mean the end of wave [v] of the leading diagonal and we would now expect a deep retracement of the whole of the decline from 1219.80. The first warning sign that this might be happening would be if we exceed the wave i low on this retracement, which would invalidate this count, but ultimately, taking out the wave [iv] high at 1131.23 would be the deciding factor.

Option 4 - Wave [b] of minor Y within intermediate [X] topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

On this count I'm expecting a 2nd wave rally, but it would only be retracing the decline from 1082.60. On that basis, a single zig zag may suffice, so that's how I've labelled it.

Taking out the high of 1082.60 would invalidate this count.

Option 5 - Minor wave X within intermediate wave [X] topped at 1131.23. Now in minor Y down

8 min chart:

On this count, I'm looking for a 4th wave rally, for which a single zig zag shoud suffice on the basis of the way I've labelled today's move. If we take out today's low without a further 5 wave rally, its likely that the completed zig zag I posted earlier was the correct count. We would then be into wave iii of (iii) down.

The invalidation point here is the wave i low at 1085.83.

20:14 BST SPX Update

Here's another possible count from today's low, which means another 5 waves up before this rally ends:

SPX 1 min chart:

19:49 BST - SPX Update

It possible we've just seen a completed correction as follows:

SPX 1 min chart:

Even on those counts where I'm looking for a 4th wave up, its only a 23.6% retracement, so the risk is its only the first zig zag in the correction, so we'd have to be alert to more upside.

19:00 BST - SPX Update

It does look like 5 waves up off today's low - perhaps the first leg of a zig zag. Whether its a 4th wave or a 2nd wave, we'll have to wait and see (see my post from this morning as to what a bottom from yesterday's high might mean):

SPX 1 min chart:

Of course, it could also be labelled as one complete zig zag, an (X) wave and we're now into the second zig zag, in which case, we'd probably see another 5 waves up from about current levels (it shouldn't take out what would be the (X) wave low) rather than seeing more of a [B] wave pullback before another 5 waves up.

17:37 BST - Dollar Update

Well, the dollar gave it up today, bringing in the more bearish alternative count from the earlier charts, which put us in either a larger single zig zag then the one originally labelled or a double zig zag. Here's the re-labelled chart from which I've deleted the old count and put the double zig zag as the main count:

Dollar 60 min elliott wave chart:

If this count is correct, we could see a bottom in the dollar failry soon. However, caution is required since there are other alternatives:

1) if we are actually in a larger single zig zag, where (w) would be (a) and (x) would be (b), we are now in wave (c). That requires 5 waves down from where wave (b) would be and so far, there are only 3 waves down. So, we'd need another up and down sequence before this correction is over. It therefore implies some further downside, but would not be inconsistent with this count which puts us in a wave [iv] of minor 3 correction; or

2) we might only be in wave a of (y) for the double zig zag, and again, we'd need 5 waves for wave a and we only have 3 so far. This alternative would imply a good deal more downside and it might even mean that the count I have that has us having topped in minor 5 and intermediate wave (1) is in play, so that we would now be in intermediate wave (2) down rather than minute [iv] of minor 3.

So, reasons to be cautious to the long side for the time being, though there are reasons to look for a bottom soon, given that we are still at an area of support. Of course, what we want to see is 5 waves up and a 3 wave retracement that doesn't break the last low. It would be no guarantee that the decline is over since it could still be a corrective rally, but it would be a start.

16:02 BST - SPX Update

Here's the 1 min chart I posted earlier, updated with today's action;

SPX 1 min chart:

We should have at least one more new low today if this is correct. Be aware that it could be wave (5), not wave (3), which would also be the end of wave [5], with the implications I laid out earlier in respect of each Option.

If we take out the 1119.06 low I've marked  before we make a new low, I'd have to assume that there's a hidden wave in there to make 5 down from where I have wave 4 or that that low was the end of wave (3) , we then had a very small wave (4) and the current low was wave (5).

13:21 BST - Dollar Update

The dollar doesn't look too hot on the 60 min ichimoku chart:

Dollar 60 min ichimoku:

Price and the lagging line have broken beneath the cloud and the turning and standard lines, whilst still in the cloud, are turning down, with price firmly below them both. We did have this same situation back on 25 June and the dollar made an unexpected turn up and rallied back above the cloud as it bottomed in the presumed wave (ii), taking the lagging line and the turning and standard lines with it. If we are bottoming in a wave [2], then it should be capable of doing this again, but we'll have to wait and see if it can.

On the elliott wave chart, the bullish count suggests that it will:

Dollar 60 min elliott wave chart:

However, the more bearish count that calls for a (c) or (y) wave down remains very much a possibility at this stage. Really, it could go either way. The 85.215 level remains key to the count as labelled, but the 85.025 level will put an end to this bullish count for the time being. So, those are the main levels to watch, as they have been for the past few days.

 

12:52 BST - ES Update

Here's the 5 min chart of ES with the nested ones and twos count which I have on the Option 5 chart of SPX:

ES 5 min chart:

From the presumed wave [4] high (which marked yesterday's high in SPX), its possible to count 5 waves down to the overnight low. If correct, that would complete wave iii on this count and we would expect a wave iv rally today. On  some other counts I'm following, this 5 waves down from the wave [4] high would represent a complete 5 down from the 21 June highs and would imply a deeper rally in a 2nd (or a B) wave. See my post from earlier today on SPX.

However, as you can see from the chart, the main alternative is that the decline from the presumed wave [4] high (which I can count as a 3 or a 5) is actually part of an expanded flat type correction, with a C or Y wave up to come, and which may have started from the overnight low. 

The rally from the overnight low doesn't look too impulsive, so chances are it may be part of a correction. You can see that I've labelled another possibilty, that we're still in wave (4) of [5], so that too needs to be borne in mind since it may mean we are closer than under the main alternative to a low for this decline.

You should also note that if I move the wave [4] label one peak to the left, which was a pre-market high in ES, instead of aligning it with the cash session high, there is a clear 5 waves down to the overnight low, so a larger rally of some degree (see my SPX post from earlier today) would be in the works now.

10:17 BST - SPX Update - Possible Count From Yesterday's High

As you can see from last night's update, all the counts I'm following, shown on the short terms charts of the 5 Options, have us in a 4th wave of some degree. Remember, each of these counts could be the one that is in force in relation to all of the Options. We just can't know at the moment which count is playing out (in the same way that we can't know at the moment which Option is correct - see the 60 min counts for the bigger picture in relation to each Option). 

As I said last night, the decline from yesterday's high doesn't look like 5 complete waves, which is what we'd need to see for a 5th wave down.

Here is a 1 min chart showing a possible count for the move from yesterday's high so far:

SPX 1 min chart:

This count suggests that we still need another down-up-down-up-down to complete 5 waves. As you can see from the chart, a possible target for the end of the 5th wave is about 1020. Of course, this is just a possible target and could be exceeded, but equally, may not be reached.

Of course, for each of the counts shown, the completion of 5 waves down from yesterday's high will mean different things:

For the count shown on the chart of Option 1, its a plain and simple 5 waves down from 1131.23, which would complete a wave i down (for Option 1 itself) or a wave A of some degree on the more bullish Options, 4 and 5. So, we'd then expect to see a 2nd or B wave rally retracing the whole of that decline from 1131.23, so it could be substantial. For example, if the decline ends at about 1020, a 61.8% retracement would take us back up to about 1090.

For the count shown on the chart of Option 2, we are in an extending 5th wave, with 3 nested ones and twos. The end of 5 waves down from yesterday's high would complete wave [3] of v (using the label degrees on that chart). So, if that is the correct count, we would see a bounce in a 4th wave on all of the Options, not a 2nd wave, so it would be expected to be more of a moderate bounce than if the count shown on the chart of Option 1 is in force. It would be retracing the drop from 1085.95, so if we end wave [3] at about 1020, a 38.2% retracement would take us back up to about 1045.

For the count shown on the chart of Option 3, 5 waves down from yesterday's high would, on the main count shown on that chart, put us at the end of a 3rd wave also ( a 3rd wave within a 5th wave), so, again, only a relatively moderate bounce in a 4th wave would be expected. We'd be retracing the drop from 1082.60, so if the decline ends at about 1020, the 38.2% retracment would be around 1045.

Only if the alternate count shown on the chart of Option 3 is in play would we expect a more significant 2nd wave rally retracing the whole of the decline from 1131.23. If the decline ends at about 1020, then a 61.8% retracement would take us to about 1090.

For the count shown on the chart of Option 4, 5 waves down from yesterday's high would be the end of wave i of (iii), using the label degrees on that chart. We would then get a 2nd wave retracement, but it would only be retracing the drop from 1082.60. A 61.8% retracement would take us up to about 1060 (and 1082.60 would be the invalidation point for this count since wave ii could not exceed that level).

For the count shown on the chart of Option 5, 5 waves down from yesterday's high would be the end of wave iii of (iii), using the degree labels on that chart. Again, we'd be looking then for a 4th wave rally, retracing the drop from 1099.64. If the decline ends at about 1020, a 38.2% retracement would take us up to about 1050.

As I mentioned last night however, we can't rule out the possibility that we are in an expanded flat type correction with the decline from yesterday's high being the B or X wave of that correction, wth a C or Y wave back up to come. 

So, if we get just a quick down move (to about where I have the green 3 on the 1 min chart above) and then rally hard beyond what would be expected for a 4th wave bounce (say a 38.2% retracement), I'd be on alert for this possiblity playing out since we'd only potentially have three waves down from yesterday's high. If we rally above 1042.44 (the low of what I have labelled as wave 1 of (3)), then, on the count as I have labelled it, we would almost certainly have only have three waves down from yesterday's high and this expanded flat type correction would then seem to be the most likley count for this move (it would likely be a 4th wave on all of the counts shown, except for the count shown on the chart of Option 4 where it could be a 2nd wave, so could retrace up more deeply than on the other counts - I've mentioned the 1060 area above).

21:49 BST - SPX Update

An exciting end to an otherwise quiet day. Here's how things look on the counts I'm following (see the 60 min counts for context)

Option 1 - Wave (ii) of [iii] topped at 1131.23

6 min chart:

Its looking very much like the alternate count which has wave [4] topping at 1085.95 is the correct count, making today's sideways action wave (4) of [5]. This means the new low today is all or part of  (5) of [5]. Once it ends, it will complete wave i of (iii) down. 

Wave (5) is currently 1.382 x wave (1). The level of  about 1025 is a 1.618 extension (and it may well get there since it does not look like 5 waves down from today's high is complete).

Option 2 - Wave [ii] topped at 1131.23

6 min chart:

On this count, we probably saw wave (4) of [3] of v at today's high.

If wave (4) ended at today's high (a 23.6% retracement), we are now into wave (5) of [3] down. This could bottom anywhere below 1035.18 - just keep an eye out for 5 waves down - it doesn't look lke a complete 5 from today's high, so there may be more to go to the downside. At 1025 approximately, wave (5) would be 1.618 x wave (1).

Option 3 - Wave [iv] of an ending diagonal completed at 1131.23

6 min chart:

On this count, I can't decide if we've seen  wave [4] or wave iv today.

The main count is that it was wave [4] that topped today and we are now in wave [5] of iii. Its currently a 2.618 extension of wave [1], but it doesn't look like 5 waves down have completed, so could still have more to go. The lower line of the elliott channel may be a target. Wave iii would be a 2.618 extension of wave i at about 1016.

If we saw wave iv of (v) top today. then the next 5 wave decline is likely to be the end of wave (v) and, therefore, wave [v] of the leading diagonal. 

Remember, it has to end above 999.83 to remain shorter than wave [iii].

Option 4 - Wave [b] of minor Y within intermediate [X] topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

On this count, its seems unlikely that we had wave ii of (iii) today. I think it would probably have to be counted as part of wave (4) of i, taking the form of a running flat. That would put us now in wave [5] of i down. Wave [5] would be 2.618 x wave [1] at about 1027.

Option 5 - Minor wave X within intermediate wave [X] topped at 1131.23. Now in minor Y down

8 min chart:

On this count, it seems most likely that we are still in wave iii of (iii). 

Today's action was likely wave (4). The next 5 wave decline would be wave [5] of iii, leading to a rally in wave iv.  Wave [5] of iii would be equal to wave [1] at about 1022 which is just about where it would hit the lower line of the elliott channel. The larger extensions are shown on the chart.

In respect of all the above counts, as noted, the decline from today's high does not yet look like 5 waves. If we rally above today's highs without making 5 waves down, we may have an expanded flat 4th wave on our hands - something to watch for.

20:03 BST - SPX Ichimoku Update

This 5 min ichimoku chart illustrates the struggle that SPX has faced today, to overcome resistance and push higher (the flattening of out of the cloud from early on in the session was a sign that the market was likely going to move sideways):

SPX 5 min ichimoku chart:

Although it got through the cloud in the morning, it couldn't take the lagging line (green) with it. So, when price pulled back, the lagging line was unable to stay above the price line, even though it and price were above the cloud.

Now they have both dropped through the cloud and although they are trying to recapture it, the turning line (blue) is now below the standard line (red) and this, as well as the cloud, will act as resistance to price. It doesn't mean it can't get above them, but the odds have turned against it for the time being.

18:24 BST - Dollar Update

The dollar had better start pedaling hard if its to maintain the uptrend that its been trying to establish for the last couple of days. Since my earlier post, its continued to find support from the cloud, but it just hasn't been able to move up and away from it:

Dollar 60 min ichimoku chart:

Its looking a little more hopeful right at this moment, with price moving back above the turning (blue) and standard (red) lines, but the turning line needs to get above the standard line too. Also, that lagging line (turquoise) needs to get back above price. Its encouraging that its found support from the standard line , but so far, its had resistance from the turning line, so is stuck between them and below the price line.

I've tentatively labelled waves (1) and (2) of [3] up on the elliott wave front, but price now needs to prove this is the correct count. The 85.215 level remains the level to watch for the moment for this count.

17:21 BST - SPX Update

You'll see from the charts I posted earlier that I have us either in a 4th wave retracing the drop from 1082.60 to 1035.18, a 2nd wave retracing that same drop, or a 2nd or [b] wave retracing the drop from 1131.23 to 1035.18 or something much more bullish which will take out the 1131.23 highs.

At the moment, the market isn't giving any real clues as to which of these options is playing out. Currently, the move off yesterday's low is weak enough to be nothing more than one of the 4th wave options. Its just managed to retrace about 23.6% of the decline from 1082.60 to 1035.18. If we make new lows now, those will become the likely counts.

Still, from little acorns, as they say, so bears can't get complacent. The market is quite capable of turning what is looking like a shallow retracement into something much larger.

Even if we are only in a 4th wave retracement of the decline from 1082.60, there could still be more upside to come. Here's a 1 min chart showing the decline from 1082.60 and the move off the 1035.18 low, based on the main count on the chart of Option 5:

SPX 1 min chart:

This looks like a double zig zag forming, with the C leg of (Y) to come.  However, I've marked the alternative, which is a single zig zag which could count as complete at today's high (the (B) wave would be a double three).

Hopefully we'll know by the end of today which of the counts is the most likely to be in play.

 

14:19 BST ES Update - 60 min Ichimoku Chart

This 60 min ichimoku chart of ES paints a very bearish picture:

Notice how even with the overnight rally, price was unable to get anywhere near the cloud and the lagging line (green) showed no sign of getting above price. All this despite the Slow Stochastic getting to overbought.

Price has now fallen back below the turning line (blue), which, by the way, never got above the standard line (red) and the overall picture suggests more downside to come.

Things can change quite quickly, so I'll be keeping a close eye on this.

14:06 BST - Dollar Update

I've adjusted the elliott wave count on the dollar - today's pullback was too deep for the 4th wave I was expecting. It represents a 61.8% retracement of the rally from 85.215, so chances are its a 2nd wave. That's how I've labelled it. Its still got room to drop, but if it takes out the 85.215 low, then it invalidates the count and puts the focus on one of the more bearish alternatives mentioned on the chart, though until 85.025 is taken out, the bullish possibility remains:

Dollar 60 min Elliott Wave chart:

And here's the 60 min ichimikou chart:

The wave [2] pullback (if that's what it is), brought price back to the cloud and below the turning (blue) and standard (red) lines. It also brought the lagging line (turquoise) below the price line. This wouldn't be unexpected in a 2nd wave retracement, so nothing to worry about too much, provided that price can now recover above the turning and standard lines and the turning line can get above the standard line. Also, the lagging line needs to get back above the price line.

These things should happen if we are now starting wave [3] up. If they don't, its a big warning that there is more downside. If we break 85.215, this bullish count will be off the table for the moment. Breaking 85.025 takes it off completely.

13:33 BST - ES Update

The zig zag down from the 21 June high is gone now. That leaves the nested ones and twos count that I have on the SPX Option 5 chart (though the degrees are different). Here's the 5 min chart of ES:

ES 5 min chart:

Wave 4 of (3) may have happened overnight, but its possible its not complete yet and we've just had the a or w wave of 4. If we're still in wave 4, it can't exceed the wave 1 low. If it does, it may mean that wave (3) bottomed yesterday and we are in wave (4). That can't exceed the wave (1) low. If that happens, then we're probably in one of the counts that shows 5 complete waves down at yesterday's low (see, eg the chart for Option 1 on SPX)

11:24 BST - SPX Update: Summary of the counts from 1131.23 and the implications for each Option

I've updated the 60 min counts page and in the process of doing so, thought it would be useful to review and summarise the various counts for the move down from 1131.23.

I'm showing different counts on the chart for each Option,  (I've changed a couple from last night's update) but they are interchangeable and what each count means has to be interpreted in the context of each Option.

Chart of Option 1 showing a completed 5 waves down or nearly complete, with one more up/down:

Chart of Option 2 showing an extending 5th wave down with 3 sets of nested ones and twos:

Chart of Option 3 showing an extending 5th wave with 2 sets of nested ones and twos with the 5th wave either complete at 1035.18 or requiring one more up/down to complete (this count is more suitable to this Option given the limit on the length of wave [v]):

Chart of Option 4 showing a complete 1st and 2nd wave down, with the 3rd wave extending (this is a new count):

Chart of Option 5 showing nested ones and twos (this count was previously shown on the chart of Option 3):

So, the various counts show different stages of a 5 wave move down from 1131.23.  At one extreme, 5 waves down are complete while at the other, there is a long way down to go before 5 waves down complete.

Looking at what 5 waves down from 1131.23 means for each of the Options I'm following (please refer to the 60 min counts for context):

For Option 1, it would be wave i of (iii) of [iii] down. 

On Option 2 it would be wave (i) of [iii]. 

On Option 3 it would be either all of wave [v] (in which case, expect a potentially substantial rally back up) or, if wave [v] is going to be three waves, (a) of [v]. 

On Option 4 it would be all of [c] to complete minor wave Y and, therefore, intermediate wave [X] (in which case we would now launch up in minor A of another zig zag up from March 2009) or it would be (i) of [c] of minor Y. 

On Option 5 it would be all of [a] of minor Y (in which case, expect a rally in minute [b]) or (i) of [a] of minor Y.

 

10:30 BST - 60 min counts page updated

See here