Friday, 19 November 2010

21:24 GMT - SPX End of Day Update

The bearish count as labelled in my previous post was invalidated in the last few minutes, so as mentioned in that previous post, I've relabelled it to show a double zig zag up from the low at 1173. For this count to remain valid, we need to stay below the high at 1207.43

Here's the bearish count (labelled as if Option 2 on the 60 min counts page is playing out):

Chart 1: SPX 1 min - bearish count:

Really, until we see a clear impulse to the downside,  I think further upside has to be expected and we could end up seeing this count invalidated also. So, an impulse down now would be the first sign that this labelling could be playing out. Even better if we take out 1189.44 in the process, followed swiftly by 1175.87 However, in reality, until we take out 1173, the bearish count is lower odds.

Here's the bullish count (labelled as if Option 3 on the 60 min counts page is playing out - but note there are 4 interpretations of it and the chart below shows the 3rd one as the main labelling):

Chart 2: SPX 1 min - bullish count:

The alternate labelling shown previously was invalidated with the move above 1199.36. However, the new alternate is the one previously noted on the chart, that 1173 was only wave (iv) of [iii] (its also possible that it was wave [iv]). For this count to remain valid, we'd need to stay above the 1173 low, but it will become very questionable if we take out the low at 1175.87.

On the main labelling, we could just about have completed the second zig zag. However, we need to take out the low at 1189.44 in order to negate the possibility that the move up from there is only wave (1) of [C] rather than the whole of [C].

So, after today's action, the levels I'm keeping an eye on are 1207.43 (which has to hold in order to keep the bearish count valid), 1189.44 (taking that out could be an initial sign that more downside, perhaps in the bearish count, is to come) and 1175.87 (taking that out would increase confidence in the bearish count, though it would also be consistent with the main and alternate bullish counts).

Have a great weekend!

19:30 GMT - SPX Update

The bearish count remains valid as labelled for the time being. The labelled count will be negated above 1199.36, but the possibility of a [1]-[2]-(1)-(2) will remain until we exceed the high at 1207.43 (I'd be labelling it as a double zig zag as shown on the chart of the bullish counts below). If the labelled count is to remain valid, we really need to start declining soon:

SPX 1 min - bear count:

For the bullish counts, all are still on the table, though the alternate (that we're in a i-ii for wave (c) down) is, like the bearish count, just about hanging on. Its invalidation point is the same as on the bearish count:

SPX 1 min - bullish count:

If we make a new high above 1200.29, that would give us  what looks like 5 waves up from 1173 and would make the further alternate (see the pink note) that 1173 was wave (iv) of [iii] start to look like more of a possibility, though it may be that we're just seeing a 5 wave wave a of (x) instead of the double zig zag I've labelled for it currently.

As I said in yesterday's end of day update, while we're above 1183.56, more upside is the most likely outcome. However, now, taking out today's low in an impulsive manner could be an initial sign that the bearish case may be gaining strength.

14:52 GMT - SPX Update

On the bearish count, I'm watching that high at 1183.56. As mentioned in yesterday's end of day update, taking that out will help the bear case (though it doesn't exclude the bullish possibilities):

SPX 1 min - bear count:

For the bullish case, a number of possibilties still remain, (see yesterday's end of day update) including a completed (x) wave during yesterday's sessions where I have the "or ii" label. If that or the alternate bullish count is playing out, I'd expect to see 1173 get taken out fairly soon:

SPX 1 min - bullish count: