Saturday, 4 September 2010

13:03 BST - SPX Update - 60 min counts page updated

I've updated the 60 min counts page. You can view it by using the tab in the menu above or by clicking here.

This last week, price action did exactly what I had said we wouldn't want to see it do on the bearish counts - it broke above the down channel that I had drawn from the April highs and has retraced a significant amount of the declline from the August high.

It doesn't rule out the bearish counts, but those under Options 1 and 2 (the former in particular) are starting to look less likely. I've said over the past few weeks that this would be the case if we didn't start to see impulsive downward action that would obviously mark a 3rd of a 3rd wave down.

However, while the bullish counts have certainly come to the fore this last week, the bearish count under Option 3, in my view, is the one that has been least adversely affected by last week's action.  It can certainly withstand a move above the April high if we are still in a single zig zag up from the July low (the single zig zag from the July low is one of the bullish counts I've been showing, but once its final leg up from the August low is complete, it would be bearish - you can see it on chart 1 in the update I posted on the bullish counts yesterday).

If you're looking for symmetry in the market, there's a potentially interesting time relationship coming up on Tuesday based on the count shown under option 3, if we are still in minor wave 2, which may suggest a turn. Its something worth watching, but not a reason in itself to go short. Price action needs to confirm a turn.

If we are in a one-two move down from the August high, as labelled for the bearish counts, there's another interesting time relationship coming up on Tuesday. From the highest close on 9 August to the lowest close on 26 August we had 13 traded days. From that lowest close we will hit 8 traded days on 7 September. So, if we were to see further upside on 7 September (not necessarily above 1129.24), we would have a fibonacci triangle in traded days whose sides would measure 13, 8 and 21. Again, something that suggests looking out for prcie action that might confirm a top, but not a reason to go short on its own.