Friday, 2 July 2010

12:25 BST - ES and SPX Update

Its early to do so, but looking at the overnight action in the futures, it can be counted as a complete zig zag up from yesterday's lows. Here's the 5 min chart of ES:

ES 5 min chart:

As noted, however, it could just be the first zig zag in a double zig zag, especially if we're in a 2nd wave correction of the entire decline from 1131.23 (see the count on the chart of Option 1 for SPX) rather than a 4th wave correction.

During yesterday's session I posted a possible complete zig zag count for SPX and here is the updated chart:

SPX 1 min - complete zig zag from 1010.91:

Obviously, the high of 1030.32 has to remain intact for this count to remain valid.

Naturally, there are many ways to count the move off the low. Here are two on SPX which anticipate more upside to come (and would likely mean a double zig zag playing out in the futures):
SPX 1 min - single zig zag with [C] in progress as an impulse or ending diagonal:

SPX 1 min - double or single zig zag with [X] or [B] in progress as a triangle:

With the jobs number coming out before the cash open, this thing could go either way - best therefore, to wait and see once things settle down after the number, but perhaps we'll find out today whether we're in a deep 2nd wave correction of the decline from 1131.23, a shallower 2nd wave correction of the decline from 1082.60, a 4th wave correction or a rally that's going to take us back above 1131.23 (see last night's SPX update).