Friday, 2 July 2010

11:14 BST - Dollar Update

Here's the daily ichimoku chart of the dollar:

You can see that it is still in an uptrend, but, the warnings of a possible trend change shown in the 26 June update, remain and have increased: price is below the turning and standard lines, the turning line is below the standard line and the lagging line is below price and slipped below its first line of support from the turning line. As long as this persists, the shorter term trend is down, even though the daily uptrend is intact.

You can see that price is now in the cloud and is also in the middle of an area of price congestion. The lagging line is coming down to its next area of support, the standard line - if the uptrend is to continue, these support areas will  hold. 

What we need to see is price move back up above the cloud, getting above the turning and standard lines. I'll be keeping a close eye on the lagging line because even if price does manage to move up as described, if the lagging line can't get back above the price line, that would be a warning that the move up in price may fail.

At the moment, the action here is consistent with a 4th wave pullback as shown on my currently favoured count.

If price gets below the cloud and the lagging line loses support from the standard line and heads down to the cloud, then, provided the lagging line gets support there, we may see things turn back up, as happened in December 2009 (see the highlighted circles on the chart).

Such price action would probably be too much of a pullback for a 4th wave and is likely to mean that intermediate wave (2) is playing out as highlighted in my last update (its Option 1B on the Dollar page).

On the 60 min timeframe, things still look decidedly bearish:

60 min ichimoku:

Yesterday's decline took price and the lagging line well below the cloud. Since yesterday's low, price has only managed to go sideways. Its flip flopping above and below the turning line at the moment, having moved above it earlier.  

So, currently, there's no sign of a trend change on this timeframe. 

At the moment, there is a risk that a new low, which would look like 5 waves down from where I have the (x) wave high, may be playing out, meaning either we are in a (c) wave down from there, so we'd be at the end of an (a)-(b)-(c) correction from 7 June instead of the (w)-(x)-(y) I've labelled (see the alternative numbered 1 in my last update), or there's the even more bearish possibility that its only wave a of (y) (see the alternative numbered 2 in the last update)

What I'd need to see to start thinking we might reverse this donwtrend is price move more convincingly above the turning line and the turning line start to point upwards. Any rally in price must move the lagging line above the price line, otherwise its not going to be convincing and would suggest to me that the rally will likely fail. Of course, even if these things happen, it will all be happening below the cloud, so would only be initial signs of a trend change, not a confirmation - still tradeable to the upside, but with caution of course.