Thursday, 1 July 2010

12:52 BST - ES Update

Here's the 5 min chart of ES with the nested ones and twos count which I have on the Option 5 chart of SPX:

ES 5 min chart:

From the presumed wave [4] high (which marked yesterday's high in SPX), its possible to count 5 waves down to the overnight low. If correct, that would complete wave iii on this count and we would expect a wave iv rally today. On  some other counts I'm following, this 5 waves down from the wave [4] high would represent a complete 5 down from the 21 June highs and would imply a deeper rally in a 2nd (or a B) wave. See my post from earlier today on SPX.

However, as you can see from the chart, the main alternative is that the decline from the presumed wave [4] high (which I can count as a 3 or a 5) is actually part of an expanded flat type correction, with a C or Y wave up to come, and which may have started from the overnight low. 

The rally from the overnight low doesn't look too impulsive, so chances are it may be part of a correction. You can see that I've labelled another possibilty, that we're still in wave (4) of [5], so that too needs to be borne in mind since it may mean we are closer than under the main alternative to a low for this decline.

You should also note that if I move the wave [4] label one peak to the left, which was a pre-market high in ES, instead of aligning it with the cash session high, there is a clear 5 waves down to the overnight low, so a larger rally of some degree (see my SPX post from earlier today) would be in the works now.