Wednesday, 23 June 2010

11:05 BST SPX Ichimoku Update

I'm not sure if anyone is really interested since not many people leave a reaction to the posts, but I like these charts, so I'll show them anyway!

Its really updating the position since I posted these charts at the weekend.
At that time, the 60 min chart was still showing an uptrend (see the chart here), but we're now starting to see the possibility of that changing:

60 min ichimoku chart:

At the moment, its still possible that support will be found within the cloud and that we will see a further rally from around current levels. However, on my interpretation, any rally in price that does not cause the lagging line to get above the close of 26 periods ago should indicate that the rally is likely to fail. It could go either way at the moment, so I'll be keeping a close eye on this.

Turning to the daily chart I posted at the weekend (see here), I listed the things I wanted to see happen in order to keep the downtrend that had started to develop intact - see points 1)-3) in the box on the far right of the chart.

Here is the updated daily chart:

Daily ichimoku chart:

You can see that two of the three things on my list have happened - so far. The third, that the turning line stay below the standard line, hasn't happened, but the turning line is only above the standard line by .28 of a point. If it crosses back down from here, it would look like a bearish hook you see in, for example, the MACD and would be bearish for the market.

The position on the daily chart doesn't preclude the uptrend on the 60 min chart continuing, but if the daily downtrend is to be maintained, any further rally on the 60 min chart would need to be limited. In a downtrend, that is the job of the cloud and currently, on the daily chart, the resistance is between 1130 - 1144 which represent, approximately, the lower and upper boundaries of the cloud. However, spikes above the cloud resistance that do not change the trend are not uncommon - I'll be watching the lagging line if such a spike occurs, to see whether or not it is able to follow price and get above the close of 26 periods ago.