Thursday, 1 July 2010

21:35 BST - SPX Update

The bottom that was expected does appear to have occurred today, but whether we are now in the process of retracing the whole of the decline from 1131.23 to 1010.91 in a 2nd wave or a substantially smaller portion of it in either a 2nd or 4th wave (or the whole of the decline from 1219.80 - see Option 4 below) remains undecided - see my post from this morning describing what a bottom in the counts I am following might mean. 

Here's how each count looks at the moment - remember, any one of the counts shown could apply to each of the Options (as to which, see the 60 min counts page for context). I've simply shown the different counts on the charts of the different Options for illustration purposes.

Option 1 - Wave (ii) of [iii] topped at 1131.23

7 min chart:

On this count, the low today completed 5 waves down from 1131.23. This means we should see a substantial retracement either in a 2nd wave (on this Option) or a (b) wave (see Option 4 for example, where 5 waves down would complete wave (a))
Obviously, on this count, the low of today has to remain intact, otherwise, one of the other counts is probably in play.

I've labelled the rally so far as waves [A] and [B] of a zig zag, but if its a wave ii as on this Option, its more likely to be a double zig zag or we're just seeing the initial waves of wave [A]. 

A likely target area for wave ii is the 61.8% retracement level at about 1085, which you can see from the chart, is the top of an area of resistance starting at about 1070.

Option 2 - Wave [ii] topped at 1131.23

7 min chart:

I've labelled the rally from today's low as waves (A) nd (B) of a zig zag on this count. The (C) wave should get it to around the 38.2% retracement level, just below an area of resistance.
As this is wave [4], it can't end above the wave [1] low at 1074.63. If it does, then this count is invalidated.

I showed ealier a possible complete single zig zag where wave (C) was an ending diagonal - if we take out today's low without a further 5 wave rally, then that is likely what we have seen.

Option 3 - Wave [iv] of an ending diagonal completed at 1131.23

7 min chart:

The comments made in respect of the count shown in the chart of Option 2 apply here also, with the same invalidation point.

If the alternative I've indicated on the chart applies, on this Option it would mean the end of wave [v] of the leading diagonal and we would now expect a deep retracement of the whole of the decline from 1219.80. The first warning sign that this might be happening would be if we exceed the wave i low on this retracement, which would invalidate this count, but ultimately, taking out the wave [iv] high at 1131.23 would be the deciding factor.

Option 4 - Wave [b] of minor Y within intermediate [X] topped at 1131.23

15 min chart:

On this count I'm expecting a 2nd wave rally, but it would only be retracing the decline from 1082.60. On that basis, a single zig zag may suffice, so that's how I've labelled it.

Taking out the high of 1082.60 would invalidate this count.

Option 5 - Minor wave X within intermediate wave [X] topped at 1131.23. Now in minor Y down

8 min chart:

On this count, I'm looking for a 4th wave rally, for which a single zig zag shoud suffice on the basis of the way I've labelled today's move. If we take out today's low without a further 5 wave rally, its likely that the completed zig zag I posted earlier was the correct count. We would then be into wave iii of (iii) down.

The invalidation point here is the wave i low at 1085.83.