Friday, 2 July 2010

9:27 BST - SPX Ichimoku Update

Here is how things look on the daily and 60 min ichimoku charts since I last looked at them on 23 June (see here):

Daily ichimoku:

The bearishness in this chart has been maintained. The turning line (blue), which had moved above the standard line (red) did turn back down and should fall back below the standard line soon. Essentially, everything looks as it should in a downtrend and on this timeframe, there is no sign yet of an end to it.

I've highlighted the areas of price congestion which represent support - we are right in the middle of it now. Prices may therefore chop around here for a bit, but if things are really bearish, as the ichimoku chart suggests, they may just fall right through into the void highlighted in blue, where there is very little support on this timeframe, down to the 950 level.

Looking at the 60 min chart:

The signs of a change in trend from up to down that were appearing on 23 June, did play out. Prices did attempt to rally back up, but found resistance at the turning line and the lagging line just failed to get above the price line, which, as mentioned on 23 June, would probably mean that the rally in price would fail.

Everything is firmly in a bearish configuration. The turning line has been doing what it should in a downtrend - providing the first line of resistance to price. If price breaks above it, then the next line of resistance should come from the standard line. I've also highlighted in green the areas of price congestion which are likely areas of resistance on normal TA and which should hold price back in a downtrend.

So, despite yesterday's recovery, there is nothing on this chart that suggests the downtrend is over. Warnings that it is will start to flash if price gets above the turning and standard lines and the lagging line gets above the price line. These signs will be something to take heed of, but if price remains below the cloud while all this is happening, it would only signify a temporary halt of downward action and not a change in trend.