Tuesday, 15 June 2010

23:54 BST - SPX Update Option 5

Option 5 has alot of bullish potential. It assumes that intermediate wave [X] completed at the 1040.78 low and we are now in wave [iii] of minor A of a zig zag for [Y] or [Z].

It can be counted in the same , way as I've shown for Option 2 but I've shown a more bullish way to label the move from 1042.17 in the chart below:

8 min chart - Option 5:

Obviously, any drop below 1042.17 would eliminate this count.

23:29 BST - SPX Update Option 2

Option 2 has minute [i] down from 1219.80 complete at 1040.78 and we are now retracing that decline in wave [ii].

We're currently in wave (c) of [ii], which started at the low of 1042.17.  There are many ways to count that move, but probably all of them, when it comes to trying to count an impulse, have something awkward about them. The one I've shown counts the best, in my view, after taking into account today's action. It requires a dip in wave [4]  before new rally highs to complete the (c) wave:

4 min chart - Option 2:

(Note: the degree of the labels I've used suggest this is only i of (c), but, following today's action, I think this wave may be large enough on its own to constitute the whole of (c) - I'll need to see how it looks once its complete).

22:58 BST - SPX Update - Option 4

Option 4 has us in minor wave Y down from 1219.80, for an intermediate [X] wave which will lead to another zig zag up from March 2009, once complete.

Wave [a] of Y ended at the 1040.78 low. We appear to still be in wave [b], which could well be complete at today's high:

15 min chart - Option 4:

If this is the correct way to count wave [b], then we should soon see a decline in wave [c] of Y. If wave [b] should be counted as an (a)-(b)-(c) instead of (w)-(x)-(y), then the (c) leg (which would start where I have placed the (x) wave) may have more to go, depending on how you label that move as an impulse.

22:23 BST - SPX Update Option 3

Option 3 has us still in wave [iv] of a leading diagonal down from 1219.80.

This afternoon I said I thought it possible we were still completing (y) of [iv], although it could count complete as things then stood. Well, obviously, it wasn't complete. This is how it looks now:

5 min chart - Option 3:

Although there is plenty of room left to the upside before the lines of the diagonal would no longer converge, if we have a double zig zag for (y) either complete or nearly complete, that ought to be it since triple zig zags are said to be rare.

The other indices that would align with SPX in an on going leading diagonal (see post dated 12 June 2010) are also still valid leading diagonals, although on some there is less room for further upside before the lines become parallel.

21:56 BST - SPX Update Option 1

If you want a potentially really bearish count, here's one way of counting the rally today, assuming that the movement since the 25 May low at 1040.78 is a w-x-y rather than a-b-c:

5 min chart - Option 1 (In wave (ii) of [iii]:

It counts as a complete [A]-[B]-[C]  from the x wave low at 1042.17, to complete y of (ii) - though it has to be said that there is room for some more upside in wave (5) of [C], depending on how you count it on the very small time frames. At the moment, (5) is .886 x (1). It would be equal at about 1119,

If there is more upside on this count, the channel for wave [C] ought to contain it. If it breaks above the channel, a quick break back down into it and towards the lower line might provide some initial confirmation of this count.

19:43 BST - SPX Update

Here's an alternative 5 wave count for today's rally:

1 min chart:

It may have ended at today's high. If not, the .618 ext of wave [1] is at about 1114 and it would reach equality at 1118

19:15 BST - SPX Update

Although it looks nasty, the move up today does seem to count as a 5:

1 min chart:

As labelled, it has now to stay below 1111.38 on this 5th wave to be valid, though the labels may be subject to adjustment once its all complete.

Assuming it stands, the question is, is it a C wave to end a move or a 1st wave in a new impulse. I think we have to see what the rest of the day brings.

16:50 SPX Update - Option 3

Option 3 is that we are still in a leading diagonal down from 1219.80.

Although I can label wave [iv] complete at yesterday's high, we could still be in (y) of [iv] - there is room for this without creating parallel, instead of converging lines for the diagonal.
4 min chart - Option 3:

60 min chart - Option 3:

16:22 BST - SPX and ES Update

On the most bearish count (wave (ii) complete yesterday), SPX is looking like an expanded flat type double three correction, with prices crawling up the underside of the channel that was broken yesterday

5 min chart:

On ES, looks like a wedge for a c wave to complete and a-b-c for Y of (2):

ES 5 min chart

 Obviously, we need to stay below yesterday's highs, otherwise, the more bullish options come into play (ie wave (ii) or [ii] continuing, which are moderatley bullish, or the very bullish options).

14:15 BST - ES Update

As in the cash indices, the drop from yesterday's highs may be the start of an impulse down or just an [A]-[B]-[C] correction before a further rally in wave (ii) or [ii] (using the main bearish counts).

The overnight action in the futures doesn't clear up the picture either way, 

On the following chart, although I've marked wave (2) or [B] highs, there could still be more upside to either - we may still be in the c leg of an a-b-c from the low marked x.

If yesterday's high gets taken out, then the x wave low will have been the whole of the correction of the last few days' rally and the more bearish count of a complete wave (ii) will be postponed. We  will either be in a continuing (ii) or [ii] on the bearish counts, the latter having greater potential upside.

9:32 BST - Dax Update

Here's the daily picture on the Dax - a possible double zig zag from March 2009.

Since its high on 26 April 2010, the Dax has been stronger than many other indices. Its most bearish count is probably a [i],[ii],(i),(ii) down from the April high, with (ii) still in progress, but possibly nearing an end.

This is how it looks on the 60 min chart:

Wave (ii) has retraced 78.6% of wave (i) down. This count will be invalidated by a move above 6276.80. It may then be that the Dax is still in wave [ii], but the invalidation point for such a count is not far above, at 6341.52. If that gets taken out, then the likelihood is that the more bullish count of a complete (X) wave at the 25 May low has now launched the Dax into a minor A of another zig zag.

Here is the 15 min chart:

The black correction channel is still containing the move off the 25 May low.

Wave (ii) could be complete at yesterday's high (it would be a slight truncation in (5) of [C] on a very close up view), but its possible we are still in 4 of (5), so another new high could still be in the works.

8:37 BST - Dollar page updated

I've updated the charts on the Dollar page