Wednesday, 30 June 2010

17:21 BST - SPX Update

You'll see from the charts I posted earlier that I have us either in a 4th wave retracing the drop from 1082.60 to 1035.18, a 2nd wave retracing that same drop, or a 2nd or [b] wave retracing the drop from 1131.23 to 1035.18 or something much more bullish which will take out the 1131.23 highs.

At the moment, the market isn't giving any real clues as to which of these options is playing out. Currently, the move off yesterday's low is weak enough to be nothing more than one of the 4th wave options. Its just managed to retrace about 23.6% of the decline from 1082.60 to 1035.18. If we make new lows now, those will become the likely counts.

Still, from little acorns, as they say, so bears can't get complacent. The market is quite capable of turning what is looking like a shallow retracement into something much larger.

Even if we are only in a 4th wave retracement of the decline from 1082.60, there could still be more upside to come. Here's a 1 min chart showing the decline from 1082.60 and the move off the 1035.18 low, based on the main count on the chart of Option 5:

SPX 1 min chart:

This looks like a double zig zag forming, with the C leg of (Y) to come.  However, I've marked the alternative, which is a single zig zag which could count as complete at today's high (the (B) wave would be a double three).

Hopefully we'll know by the end of today which of the counts is the most likely to be in play.