Thursday, 1 July 2010

13:21 BST - Dollar Update

The dollar doesn't look too hot on the 60 min ichimoku chart:

Dollar 60 min ichimoku:

Price and the lagging line have broken beneath the cloud and the turning and standard lines, whilst still in the cloud, are turning down, with price firmly below them both. We did have this same situation back on 25 June and the dollar made an unexpected turn up and rallied back above the cloud as it bottomed in the presumed wave (ii), taking the lagging line and the turning and standard lines with it. If we are bottoming in a wave [2], then it should be capable of doing this again, but we'll have to wait and see if it can.

On the elliott wave chart, the bullish count suggests that it will:

Dollar 60 min elliott wave chart:

However, the more bearish count that calls for a (c) or (y) wave down remains very much a possibility at this stage. Really, it could go either way. The 85.215 level remains key to the count as labelled, but the 85.025 level will put an end to this bullish count for the time being. So, those are the main levels to watch, as they have been for the past few days.