Wednesday, 30 June 2010

11:24 BST - SPX Update: Summary of the counts from 1131.23 and the implications for each Option

I've updated the 60 min counts page and in the process of doing so, thought it would be useful to review and summarise the various counts for the move down from 1131.23.

I'm showing different counts on the chart for each Option,  (I've changed a couple from last night's update) but they are interchangeable and what each count means has to be interpreted in the context of each Option.

Chart of Option 1 showing a completed 5 waves down or nearly complete, with one more up/down:

Chart of Option 2 showing an extending 5th wave down with 3 sets of nested ones and twos:

Chart of Option 3 showing an extending 5th wave with 2 sets of nested ones and twos with the 5th wave either complete at 1035.18 or requiring one more up/down to complete (this count is more suitable to this Option given the limit on the length of wave [v]):

Chart of Option 4 showing a complete 1st and 2nd wave down, with the 3rd wave extending (this is a new count):

Chart of Option 5 showing nested ones and twos (this count was previously shown on the chart of Option 3):

So, the various counts show different stages of a 5 wave move down from 1131.23.  At one extreme, 5 waves down are complete while at the other, there is a long way down to go before 5 waves down complete.

Looking at what 5 waves down from 1131.23 means for each of the Options I'm following (please refer to the 60 min counts for context):

For Option 1, it would be wave i of (iii) of [iii] down. 

On Option 2 it would be wave (i) of [iii]. 

On Option 3 it would be either all of wave [v] (in which case, expect a potentially substantial rally back up) or, if wave [v] is going to be three waves, (a) of [v]. 

On Option 4 it would be all of [c] to complete minor wave Y and, therefore, intermediate wave [X] (in which case we would now launch up in minor A of another zig zag up from March 2009) or it would be (i) of [c] of minor Y. 

On Option 5 it would be all of [a] of minor Y (in which case, expect a rally in minute [b]) or (i) of [a] of minor Y.