Wednesday, 30 June 2010

14:06 BST - Dollar Update

I've adjusted the elliott wave count on the dollar - today's pullback was too deep for the 4th wave I was expecting. It represents a 61.8% retracement of the rally from 85.215, so chances are its a 2nd wave. That's how I've labelled it. Its still got room to drop, but if it takes out the 85.215 low, then it invalidates the count and puts the focus on one of the more bearish alternatives mentioned on the chart, though until 85.025 is taken out, the bullish possibility remains:

Dollar 60 min Elliott Wave chart:

And here's the 60 min ichimikou chart:

The wave [2] pullback (if that's what it is), brought price back to the cloud and below the turning (blue) and standard (red) lines. It also brought the lagging line (turquoise) below the price line. This wouldn't be unexpected in a 2nd wave retracement, so nothing to worry about too much, provided that price can now recover above the turning and standard lines and the turning line can get above the standard line. Also, the lagging line needs to get back above the price line.

These things should happen if we are now starting wave [3] up. If they don't, its a big warning that there is more downside. If we break 85.215, this bullish count will be off the table for the moment. Breaking 85.025 takes it off completely.