22:58 GMT - SPX Update on the ending diagonals

Here's a wider perspective of the count shown in Chart 3 of today's end of day update. Its a 60 min chart of the rally from the August low. The labelling relates to the alternate count shown on Chart 3 which has us in the final wave (v) of [i] of C (the count that has us in a wave C up is Option 3 on the 60 min counts page):

SPX 60 min - 5 waves up from the August low:

If we're in wave v of (v) as labelled, then wave v must stay below 1202.64 in order to remain shorter than wave iii.

As mentioned in the end of day update, its possible that we're still in wave iii rather than in wave v. If that's the case, then wave iii must stay below 1201.76 in order to remain shorter than wave i.

So, if this ending diagonal is playing out, those are the limits within which it has to stay in order to comply with the elliott wave rules applicable to ending diagonals. 

If this ending diagonal is invalidated, there's still the ending diagonal shown on Chart 1 in today's end of day update. If we're in wave v of (v) in that diagonal, then it has to stay below 1208.59 to remain shorter than wave iii. If we're still in wave iii, then it has to stay below 1208.13 to remain shorter than wave i.

By the way, remember that this count for 5 waves up from the August low can be applied equally to the most bearish longer term count (Option 1 on the 60 min counts page) and the moderately bearish count (Option 2 on the 60 min counts page) instead of how I showed the labelling on Chart 1 in today's end of day update (which was labelled as if Option 1 is playing out).

20:21 GMT- SPX End of day Update

The bearish count as previously labelled was invalidated following the Fed decision today, but here's what I'm now looking at:

Chart 1: SPX 60 min - bearish count:

As you can see, its another ending diagonal.

Here's a close up from the wave (iv) low at 1159.71:

Chart 2: SPX 1 min bearish count close up from 1159.71 low:

Its possible that we're still in wave iii of this diagonal. rather than wave v as I've labelled it. If we take out the low at 1171.70 without a new high first, I'd consider this diagonal complete.

For the bullish count, I've re-arranged it to try to accommodate the action today. It could be counted as another diagonal to complete wave (iii) or wave (v) on the alternate labelling:

Chart 3: SPX 1 min bullish count:

If this diagonal is playing out, its possible that we're still only in wave [3], so we still have more upside to come to complete it. Taking out the low at 1177.65 would suggest to me that the diagonal as labelled is complete.

However, its possible that the whole sideways move from 1189.43 is a large triangle for wave iv (or (iv) on the alternate count) with the [E] wave at the low of 1183.56. The move up from there would be part of wave v of (iii) or wave (v). If we take out the low at 1183.56 at this stage then I'd consider that today's high marked the end of wave (iii) or (v) and that we'd now be correcting down in wave (iv) or wave [ii] of C.

So, on these counts, the levels to watch are 1183.56, 1177.65 an 1171.70.

While we're above these levels, the odds favour further upside, whether on the bullish or bearish counts.

15:22 GMT - SPX Update on the bullish count

We may have seen a top on the bullish count today, in either wave (iii) on the main labelling or wave (v) on the alternate labelling. In either case, if we don't take out the low at 1177.65, there remains the possibility that we've only seen the 1st wave of (iii) or (v) today:

SPX 1 min - bullish count:

14:39 GMT - SPX Update on the bearish count

The 1196.14 high remains stubbornly intact, so the bearish count remains on the table - how long for, we'll see. Still, here is how I'm counting it:

SPX 1 min - bearish count:

The diagonal for (C) of [Y] may be complete with a truncated 5th wave. If not, the 5th wave can't exceed 1196.64, but obviously, on the bear count, we have to stay below 1196.14 for that to remain valid.

13:30 GMT - Dollar Update

Here's a possible way to label the move in the dollar since my last update on 30 October. This 80 min chart is updated from that post:

Dollar 80 min:

A possible ending diagonal for wave (v) of [v] of C  which would be a truncated wave (v)? Well, its worth considering, though bear in mind, it could be a leading diagonal for wave i of (v).

If the alternate count on the above chart is playing out, then this diagonal may be (C) of [Y] of ii with iii up now about to start. This 15 min chart updates the 10 min chart in the last post:

Dollar 15 min:

Taking out 78.273 would mean there's a very good chance that we've bottomed on the dollar. While we're below that, the risk of further downside is high.