Saturday, 10 July 2010

18:21 BST - SPX Update - Counts for action from 7 to 9 July 2010

In last night's Update I posted various ways of counting the move from the low at 1010.91, which included alternative ways of counting the action of the past two to three days. I thought I'd take a break from the heat and humidity we're experiencing over here and have a closer look at those possibilities.

I'm looking at the counts on the charts of Options 1, 2, 3 and 4 from last night.

On this chart, I'm showing an [X] wave low on 6 July at 1018.35. From there, I have an (A)-(B)-(C) move with wave 5 of (C) as an ending diagonal starting from the 4 of (C) low at 1058.24.

On last night's chart of Option 1 the labelling showed  waves i to iii of the ending diagonal possibly complete. Looking at it close up, it may be nearer to completion than that. Here's a 1 min chart showing the move from 1058.24 (ignore the wave degrees - I upped them for ease of labelling):

SPX 1 min chart - ending diagonal on Option 1, from 1058.24:

I don't think this looks too shabby, apart from the little foray of wave (B) of [3] below the lower line of the diagonal. However, I'd be prepared for more upside just in case we really are only in wave [3], with [4] and [5] yet to come.

Charts of Options 2 and 3:

On these two charts I labelled an impulse wave from the 1058.24 low. I posted the detail last night, but here it is again for the sake of completeness:

SPX 1 min chart - impulse on Options 2 and 3 from 1058.24:

Nothing to add on this one, except that if we have started the final 5th wave, I wouldn't be surprised if it takes the form of another ending diagonal.

On this chart, from the [X] wave low at 1018.35, I labelled an (A)-(B)-(C) move up. The (B) wave low is at 1039.91 and from there, I showed a possible complete ending diagonal. I said last night that I didn't think it is valid since wave 4 of the ending diagonal doesn't appear to be a zig zag. Here it is close up (again, ignore the degree of the labels):

SPX 1 min chart - ending diagonal on Option 4 from 1039.91:

I still don't think that what I show as wave 4 of the ending diagonal on the Option 4 chart from last night can be labelled as a zig zag - if it is one, its an odd one. On the 1 min chart you can see that what I have as wave 4 on the Option 4 chart I prefer to count as part of the zig zag for wave 3 of the diagonal. This means waves 4 and 5 to come.

Of course, the ending diagonal shown on the chart of Option 1 last night, which didn't look complete, may in fact be complete or very nearly so looking at the 1 min chart above. That count can also be applied to the chart of Option 4, so my concern over this ending diagonal may be meaningless!

13:14 BST - 60 min Counts page updated

See the 60 min Counts page in the menu above.