Wednesday, 16 June 2010

22:25 BST - SPX Update

Well, another day and still all the options I'm following remain on the table.

Here they are in close up:

Option 1 - Wave (ii) of [iii] down nearing completion if not complete today:

4 min chart - Option 1:

Option 2 - Wave [i] down from 1219.80 complete at 1040.78, now in (c) of [ii] up:

4 min chart - Option 2:

Option 3 - Still in wave [iv] of a leading diagonal:

5 min chart - Option 3:

Option 4: - In wave Y of [X] down from 1219.80. Currently completing [b] of Y:

15 min chart - Option 4:

 Option 5 - Completed wave [X] down at 1040.78, now in minor A up:

8 min chart - Option 5:

In respect of Options 1, 2 and 4, I mention the possibility of a further rally high because at the moment the decline from today's high looks like 3 waves only. Here's the count (its the same as I've shown in the chart of Option 5):

4 min chart - Alternative count for rally from 1052.25:

Not much more to say at this stage except that on the 60 min chart, the bearish divergences in the MACD histogram (since 9 June) and RSI (since 14 June) suggest that a turn down of some degree should occur soon. But, of course, these divergences can continue for a while before price actually turns down.

19:23 BST - SPX Update

Here's a possible way to count the move up from the 14 June low - as an ending diagonal. It would account for the three wave look of the rally from this morning's low to the 1117.49 high:

SPX 1 min chart:

Of course, the move up from today's low could still develop into a normal impulse wave.  I think it would help this count if we could take out the low marked [4] (and, as we all know, wave [5] must remain shorter than wave [3] for this to be vaild - there's still room for it to go higher - and must be a zig zag). 

PS A variation would be to retain today's low as the 4th wave of a 5 wave move up from 14 June and count a diagonal from there - we would only have had waves 1 to 3, so we'd need a 4 and 5.

17:42 BST - SPX Update

On the most bearish counts, Options 1, 3 and 4, we could count today's move off yesterday's high and the subsequent rally as the 4th and 5th waves which would end these moves (so moving the highs shown previously to today's high).

Here it is on a 3 min chart of Option 1:

SPX 3 min chart - Option 1:

Its into the next level of resistance at about 1119, but whether this will only hold it back temporarily or will end the moves on these three counts, remains to be seen - its possible that we still need another drop and rally to complete 5 up from today's low. Until we see an impulsive drop, the risk of higher highs remains.

On the more bullish counts, for Option 2, it seems too shallow to be wave [4] so I would count it as for the three bearish options, as the 4th and 5th waves of the 5 waves up from 14 June. This means we still need a larger wave [4] pullback at some point.

For Option 5, I'd probably count it the same as for the bearish counts, but its feasible that on the count I showed for this Option it was wave [4].

14:02 BST - ES Update and SPX summary

Again, as yet, the overnight futures action hasn't done anything to clarify which count, bullish, bearish or in between, is the relevant count.

Here's the 5 min chart of ES numbered in accordance with Option 1 on SPX which puts us pretty much at the end of a wave (ii) correction within wave [iii] down. It calls for a drop in (iii) of [iii] soon, if not now.

es 5 min chart;

However, the drop off from yesterday's high in ES could be wave [4] of i of (c) (or wave iv of (c)), which is what I'd be looking for in SPX in Option 2  

For Option 3 on SPX, we just need to see this drop since a nice double zig zag to complete wave [iv] of the leading diagonal counts as completed yesterday.

Option 4 on SPX also requires a drop soon, assuming a complete a-b-c from the low on 8 June. The drop would be wave [c] of minor Y within an intermediate [X] wave down from 1219.80.

For Option 5 on SPX, we need to see a wave [4] of iii down before a further rally to complete iii of (i) up within a minor wave A rally, so a pullback soon would be fine for this count.


9:28 BST Dollar Update

This is the daily chart of my favoured count for the dollar, namely that we are in an extending minor 3 and have completed wave [iii] of 3 (you can see the other counts on the dollar page):

Daily Chart:

You can see that the retracement from the high on 7 June has, so far, reached the lower line of the elliott channel for the minuette waves within [iii] (which is where a wave (iv) could end), as well as the lower line of the elliott channel for the minute waves and the upper base channel line for the minute waves (which is where a wave [iv] could end).

So, at the moment, the drop from the high could still either be wave [iv], or it could still be wave (iv) of [iii] as an expanded or running flat (if it fails to go below wave a of the flat).

Here it is on the 60 min chart:

This shows a possibly complete 5 waves down from the high for wave (a) of [iv], which means [iv] should be a zig zag (I have wave [ii] as a flat type correction, so this would be good alternation).

On the alternative, this 5 wave move down could be wave c in an expanded (or potential running) flat for wave (iv) of [iii] (I have wave (ii) of [iii] as a double zig zag, so again, good alternation).

I think we'll have to see where any rally now takes us, assuming that we have 5 complete waves down from the 7 June high. On either of the above alternatives, a rally would be due if 5 waves down are complete. 

Once we have a 5-3-5 up from the assumed low of the 5 wave drop, I'd be watching the top of the first of those 5 waves up. If taken out by a subsequent drop, it would make the move up a three wave move, suggesting its a (b) wave of a zig zag down from the 7 June high. Of course, there's no guarantee there since it may just mean that 5 waves up is extending, but it would be an initial sign.


8:22 BST SPX 60 min count page updated

I've updated the 60 Min Count page.