Thursday, 11 November 2010

21:24 GMT - SPX End of Day Update

Lots of possibilities still open for the market at this stage.

At the moment, for the bear count, I'll stick with the sub-dividing wave (5), but it wouldn't surprise me if we made the wave (5) low at 1206.04, where I've labelled 1 of (5)  to complete wave [1] down and we're currently now in wave [2] up. 

On the bullish count, I think it probably looks best as requiring a further leg down for c of (Y) to compete wave [4]. I've excluded the possibility that yesterday's rally was wave (1) of [5] and today's decline was wave [2] because the Dow went below yesterday's low which invalidates such a count on that index.

Here's the close up chart showing the above possibilities (you can see the slightly bigger picture for this chart on Charts 2 and 3 in yesterday's end of day update and the even bigger picture on the 60 min counts page):

SPX 1 min - close up:

As you can see, I've re-drawn the blue channel so it touches waves (2) and (4) rather than (1) and (3) of the bear count. Its interesting that today's move up stopped at that line. For the bear or bull count, the lower line might provide a potential target area for the end of wave (5) (bear count) or c of (Y) (bull count).

For the bear count, wave 3 of (5) should take us well below 1204.49. If wave 2 of (5) ended at today's high, then a 1.618 extension of wave 1 would take us to around 1195. For this count to remain valid, we have to stay below 1218.75 and take out the low at 1204.49.

If we're in fact in wave [2] for the alternate bear count, then we're likely to stay above the low at 1204.49 and, in order to achieve more of a retracement of wave [1], we could see another zig zag form to take us perhaps to the 61.8% retracement level at about 1219. The decline from today's high would probably be the x wave preceding the next zig zag.

On this alternate bear count,  its not impossible that the move up today was the whole of wave [2] - it retraced nearly 50% of wave [1] at today's high. However, I think that in terms of time when compared to the time taken by wave [1], it probably doesn't look right. So, if its wave [2] that we're in, then I'd expect more upside, which would also give it a better look in terms of time.

On the bullish count, wave c of (Y) should take out the low at 1204.49 before wave [4] is complete. It does, of course, have to stay above the 1194.53 level I've been mentioning, which is the high of wave [1]. If we do this and then move back up and take out the low at 1206.04 without making a further low, then this count will look like its higher odds since a move back above 1206.04 in the circumstances described would invalidate the main bear count because it would mean there'd be overlap between what would have been waves 1 and 4 of (5) on the main bear count. 

If we take out 1194.53, then the question will still be whether the high at 1127.08 was the top for the rally from the August low or whether, as shown in Chart 3 in yesterday's end of day update, and Chart 2 on the 60 min counts page, that high was only the 3rd wave up in that rally. So, taking out that low doesn't guarantee that the bear count is playing out.

So for the moment, the main levels to watch on these labellings are 1218.75 (to keep the main bear count alive this musn't be exceeded), 1204.49 (this has to be taken out on the bear count and ought to be taken out on the bullish count) and 1195.43 (this musn't be taken out if the bullish count is to survive).

18:04 GMT - SPX Update

All this sideways movement today isn't suggesting that we've bottomed in wave [4] of the alternate (bullish) labelling. Its suggesting that the labelling I showed in the last post has better odds of being on the right track, at least for now, albeit with a more extended wave 2 of (5) (on the bear case) or B (on the bullish case):

SPX 1 min - close up:

The other alternative, that we bottomed in wave (5) and [1] on the bear count, with a truncation in wave (5) is also still valid and the sideways action would certainly be consistent with a wave [2] correction. I'd assume, however, that if this is what's playing out, we have more upside to come in wave [2] since we've only achieved a 23.6% retracement if we bottomed in wave [1] at 1206.40.

15:45 GMT - SPX Update

Well, the bear count is still on the table with the low at 1120.40 not having been taken out and the drop at today's open. I'm thinking we may be seeing a subdividing wave (5) on this count, although its perfectly possible that wave (5) ended where I've indicated on the chart below in a slight truncation:

SPX 1 min - close up:

If the low indicated is a truncated wave (5) and, therefore, wave [1] on the bear count, the retracement for wave [2] could take us back up to the 1219 area (61.8% retracement, which looks like good resistance) but of course, it could go higher (78.6% is at about 1222). A move now below today's low would increase the odds that wave (5) is extending.

For the bullish count (the alternate labels) I've adjusted the labels to show a potential double three correction for wave [4], with wave (W) being a flat ending at yesterday's low, followed by wave (X) to yesterday's high and we'd now be in wave (Y) as a zig zag. Remember that this alternate is invalidated below 1194.53.

12:09 GMT - Dollar Update

If we're in a developing impulse wave up from the low at 75.631, as I labelled the 15 min chart in my last post on the dollar (see here), then if this updated labelling is right, I'd expect to see a big move up in the dollar pretty soon:

Dollar 15 min:

If that doesn't happen then I'll begin to doubt the labelling, although the count for a potential impulse may still stand, provided we don't take out the low at 75.631, of course.

As I said in my last post on the dollar, while we're below 78.273, the risk to the downside is greater. Breaking above that level is vital for the bullish case (though it doesn't preclude bearish counts and more downside, as to which, see the dollar page).

Here's the 95 min chart:

Dollar 95 min:

As you can see, we're at the top of the resistance area  (delineated by the red lines on the above chart) shown on the daily chart in my last post. An impulsive and significant break above this area would certainly inspire confidence in the bullish case, provided it then becomes support. Failure to break above it would not look good for the bullish case.