22:23 BST - Dollar Update

The dollar is suggesting, for the moment at least, that it may hold the support area highlighted at the weekend.

Here is an updated daily chart. Note the slight bullish signs showing in the RSI, MACD histogram and Slow STO. However, it still has a lot of work to do if it really is starting a rally that will take it above the 7 June high of 88.708.

Here's the 60 min ichimoku chart:

Its managed to break above the cloud (just) and is above the turning and standard lines (blue and red, respectively). Also, the turning line is above the standard line. The lagging line is stuck below the cloud at the moment. Really, it needs to get above the cloud (as do the turning and standard lines) for me to have any confidence in a more sustainable rally.

I also need to see the first leading line (the blue outline of the cloud) get above the second leading line (the red outline) to get the cloud sloping upwards. At the moment, the rally that we saw today isn't entirely convincing and that's reflected in the position of the components of this chart.

Here's a 60 min elliott wave chart with a highly tentative count suggesting we've seen the low of the correction from the 7 June high:

As I've said above, its not completely convincing at present, so that low at 85.215 needs to be watched closely. A fall below it would probably mean there is more downside to go, as suggested by the alternative counts mentioned on the chart.

21:45 BST - SPX Update

Another rather sideways day today meaning there are still a myriad of counts on the table, both bullish and bearish.

Here are the 5 counts (see the 60 min counts for context). Remember that the counts shown in Options 1, 3 and 4 are interchangeable. There remain so many ways to count the decline from 1131.23, so I've just used each of those options to illustrate different bearish counts:

Option 1 - wave (ii) topped at 1131.23

SPX 6 min chart:

For this count, we either had a brief wave [4] rally which ended at 1085.95, followed by a (1), (2) representing part of wave [5] down, with (2) likely topping at today's high of 1082.60 and we're now starting wave (3) of [5] down, or wave [4] has formed a triangle which topped at 1082.60 and we are now in the early stages of wave [5] down. On either of those counts, the 1082.60 high is the invalidation point and may mean that wave [4] is still in progress.

Option 2 - wave i of (c) of [ii] complete at 1131.23:

SPX 5 min chart:

This count shows a completed wave ii correction and the start of wave iii up within wave (c) of [ii]. Wave ii retraced 70.7% of wave i. The invalidation point for this count, as labelled, is the wave ii low at 1067.89.

The alternative is that we are forming a double zig zag from 1131.23 and we had a triangle (B) wave that completed at 1082.60. 


If the triangle completed at 1082.60, then we may have seen a small 1,2 down (wave 1 being a leading diagonal, perhaps). It has to stay below 1082.60 for this count to remain valid, otherwise, either wave (B) is still on going or the more bullish count, that we have started wave iii, is in play.

Obviously, any further decline can't take out the start of wave i at 1042.17.

Also remember that its possible that 1131.23 was the end of wave (c) of [ii], in which case, the counts in Options 1, 3 or 4 may be applicable and we'd be in wave [iii] down.

Option 3 - wave [iv] of a leading diagonal completed at 1131.23:


SPX 5 min chart:

I've retained the nested ones and twos on this chart. I've changed the count slightly to show wave 2 completing at today's high with a truncated  C wave within y and we've possibly started wave 3 down. If we take out the wave 2 high at 1082.60, then this count as labelled is invalidated, but it would still be possible that wave 2 is in progress, as long as it stays below the wave (2) high at 1099.64.

Option 4 - wave [b] of minor Y within a wave [X] completed at 1131.23:

SPX 15 min chart:

This shows a completed wave [1] at 1074.63, with an expanded flat wave [2] in progress. I've changed the count slightly to show wave (B) of [2] as a triangle - the triangle may still be in progress, or may have completed at today's close (I've labelled it complete there). If that's right, we'll need to rally pretty much from the start tomorrow in order to avoid invalidating the triangle. If we're in wave E of the triangle, it can't go below the wave C low at 1071.45.

We still need to take out the (x) wave low at 1052.25 before its confirmed that we're in wave [c] of Y. 

For Options 1, 3 and 4, there is also the extending 5th wave count. I've moved the wave 2 high to 1082.60, but even if that gets taken out, it could still be forming  wave 2 provided it stays below the wave (2) high at 1085.95. If it takes that out, it may be we are still in wave (2), subject to the high of 1099.64  remaining intact:

Option 5 - we completed wave (i) of [iii] at 1131.23:

SPX - 8 min chart:

The picture here is the same as shown on the chart for Option 2, but I've only shown the bullish count which puts us at the start of wave (iii) up. If we take out the wave (ii) low, then it'll probably mean that the double zig zag count shown on the chart for Option 2 is playing out.

As before, if it takes out the low at 1042.17 (the end of wave [ii]) then this particular count will go but it may just mean we ended  a minor X wave at 1131.23 and that the drop from 1219.80 is forming a double zig zag rather than the single zig zag that completed at 1040.78. It would mean more downside near term, but longer term, would be bullish.

19:23 BST - SPX Update

The count I have that shows a wave [1] bottom at 1074.63 and putting us now in wave [2] up to around 1095 - 1109 (see the Option 4 chart), also may have a triangle in the position of the (B) wave of [2]:

SPX 1 min chart:

If the E wave is correctly placed, we need to stay above that and make a new high for the (C) wave of [2]. If we're still in the E wave, it can't drop below the low of wave C at 1071.45 - that would invalidate the triangle.

17:59 BST - SPX Update

The possible triangle I pointed out in my last post, which would be a 4th wave applicable to the counts shown in Options 1, 3 and 4, is also relevant to the more bullish counts, Options 2 (if wave [ii] hasn't already topped at 1131.23) and 5, where it would be a (B) or [B] wave in a second zig zag. Here it is on the Option 2 chart:

SPX 1 min chart:

The invalidation point for the triangle is, again, 1083.56.

16:21 BST - SPX Update

On the count shown on the chart of Option 1, where I'm looking for a wave [4] (if it hasn't already completed at 1085.95), we may be forming a triangle:

SPX 1 min chart:

We would be in wave (E), so couldn't take out the wave (C) high at 1083.56. That would invalidate the contracting triangle.

13:54 BST - Dollar Update

The dollar is also not giving very much away at the moment.

Its holding here, possibly for the reasons set out in my weekend post, but it hasn't really launched into a 3rd wave. This means, the risk of further downside remains for the time being.

Heres the 60 min chart:

I've marked on it some levels to watch. If we take out 85.215, the risk that we are in a double zig zag down or a larger single zig zag (see the alternate counts) will increase, though only taking out the low at 85.025 would rule out the main (i), (ii) count.

Taking out the high at 86.119 might be an early indication that wave (iii) up has started and that will strengthen if we take out the 86.415 high and the upper red channel line. Its no guarantee since we could still be in a (x) or (b) wave, but it would be a start and we could use a higher low as a warning that its not really wave (iii).

Here's the 60 min ihchimoku chart:

We've got a bullish cross of the turning line (blue) above the standard line (red) and price is above both and the lagging line has moved above the price line. However, its all still below the cloud, so its only a weak bullish signal at this stage. There's alot of work to do to establish a new uptrend.

13:28 BST - ES Update

Here's a 60 min ichimoku chart of ES showing a bullish cross of the turning line (blue) above the standard line (red), with price moving above both and the lagging line (green) above the price line. These bullish crosses occurred below the cloud, so were weak buy signals and price has failed to follow through so far, in particular, failing to get above the cloud. 

ES 60 min ichimoku:

It paints a fairly neutral picture at the moment, but looking into the future (26 periods out), the cloud is showing signs of turning negative if the red outline goes below the blue outline.

So, the initial bullish signs from earlier are in danger of failing. I'm watching the lagging line in particular since if it can't get above the cloud, (its struggling to overcome resistance at the standard line currently) it'll be a warning that something may be wrong with any rally that takes place. If it falls below the price line, that's bearish.

13:14 BST - ES Update

There's nothing decisive either way in ES at the moment, so all counts shown for SPX on Friday would seem to be still in play.

Here's a 5 min chart of ES:

Its pretty much the same count as I posted on Friday before the open, except I've changed the labelling of the siedways move from the wave i low to W-X rather than A-B, but it could be either.. This count lines up with Option 4 on SPX posted on Friday and suggests some more upside before we head down in a 3rd wave. However, beware of the counts I've shown on SPX on Friday that have more immediate downside potential, because we are either in a 5th wave down (see the alternative on the Option 1 chart and the extra 1 min chart) or (even more bearish) in nested ones and twos to the downside (see the Option 3 chart)

The alternative double zig zag count relates to SPX Options 2 and 5 (see Friday's charts here) and requires a bit more upside before we move down in wave (C) of [Y], but as suggested on the main counts for those Options, a single zig zag may have completed already, in which case, I wouldn't expect any further downside. So, Friday's low is, for the moment, the level to watch here.

 

11:55 BST SPX 60 min Counts page update

Updated the 60 min counts page to the close on 25 June.

15:43 BST Dollar Update

The dollar is at a fairly important position right now, in my view: is it going to turn back up from current levels to confirm that its been in a 4th wave of some degree (as in options 1A, 2A and B and 3 of the counts I'm following - see the counts and the charts on the dollar page), or is it going to decline further in a continuation of an intermediate wave (2)?

Obviously, I don't know the answer - sorry! - I can only look at the evidence as displayed in the charts.

This is one of the charts on the dollar page which I've updated for the close on 25 June:

Dollar Daily chart:

You can see why I think it is at an important level - there is price support which is also the area of a prior 4th wave and its at the 38.2% retracement of wave [iii], as well as being in the area of the 50 day ma. Its just broken down out of the elliott channel, but if I were to draw in the base channel by connecting the low of wave [ii] to the low of wave 2 and placing a parallel line over wave 1, price is currently at the mid line of that channel - a point at which a 4th wave often ends if it fails to stop at the bottom of the elliott channel.

In addition, you can see the support line I've drawn under the RSI. This indicator has found support at its current level on each of the important pullbacks in price during this uptrend.  The MACD histogram is making higher lows and there is in fact a subtle bullish divergence in that the lowest low of the histogram came on 18 June. Friday's histogram bar (though slightly lower than the previous day) is higher than the bar of that day yet price closed lower than it did on 18 June. So, a lower close in price, than on 18 June, but no lower low in the histogram.

All of these points would suggest that the odds favour a reversal back up very soon, perhaps confirming one of the 4th wave counts.

So what else? Well there's those ichimoku charts that I like looking at. Here's the daily chart:

Dollar Daily ichimoku:

You can see that there are some bearish signs appearing on this chart, yet there are also reasons why price could well turn back up from around here.

The bearish signs are that the turning line (blue) has crossed below the standard line (red) and price is below both. Also, the lagging line has just slipped below the price line. These features I would take as warning signs of a potential trend change.

However, On the plus side, price is very close to the cloud which, as well as being an indication of the trend, also acts as support and resistance. Its more obvious than in most other forms of charting, but clearly, that support or resistance is an area, not a specific price point, so price could slip into the cloud and even down through it yet still reverse and continue the larger uptrend. (you can see that happened in Decmber 2008). 

I've mentioned previously, that I watch the behaviour of the lagging line most closely. Look at that action in December 2008 when price declined through the bottom of the cloud (and the turning line fell below the standard line and price was below both). You can see that the lagging line also dropped (remember, you have to compare the lagging line 26 periods back from price). The lagging line stopped on the top of the cloud, ie it found support on the cloud, even though price did not. That's the point at which price reversed back up.

Currently, the lagging line is close to the turning line. In trends, the turning line can also provide support or resistance. I've highlighted on the chart the occasions when during the downtrend from March to December 2009, the lagging line found resistance at the turning line and those occasions when it has found support there during the uptrend. 

Then there is the weekly ichimoku chart:

Dollar Weekly ichimoku:

This is currently painting a pretty bullish picture with all of the components of the chart in a buliish configuration. 

The decline in price looks, at the moment, like its coming back to the turning line, as it would do with a conventional moving average when it strays too far from it (except in runaway trends, of course). So nothing to cause concern here so far. The turning line should provide support to price - another reason to think we might get a reversal back up in the dollar fairly soon.

The chart also explains why price pulled back from the 7 June highs, in both conventional TA terms as well as in ichimoku charting terms.

None of this will preclude a drastic fall in price which takes the lagging line with it, after all, all trends have to end or are suspended temporarily. However, these ichimoku charts, coupled with the points I've made above with regard to the more conventional TA, suggest reasons to think that the dollar could turn back up from around these levels.

So finally, here's the elliott waves on a 60 min chart:

Dollar 60 min chart:

I've labelled it in accordance with the daily chart shown above, which is my favoured count at the moment (the other counts are on the dollar page).

I've labelled a complete wave [iv] on 20 June, followed by waves (i) and (ii) of [v]. You can see that there's not much more room for wave (ii) to drop - its at the 78.6% retracement level. Its possible to count the c wave of (ii) complete or very nearly complete on Friday (you can just about make out 5 waves on this timeframe, but on a smaller timeframe, it probably needs another small push down).

The alternative is that we're into a second zig zag (where I have wave (i) up would be wave (x)) or (as marked on the chart) the (c) leg of a larger single zig zag.

So, the elliott wave count could have us at a point where wave [v] of minor 3 is about to start. If you were to trade to the long side now, the risk would be fairly limited (you'd know you were on the wrong side if the low marked [iv] is taken out), provided we don't just gap down on Sunday night.  

However, there are more bearish possibilities too, so with reference to the wave count, its not possible to say that the decline is over.  Its the techincals referred to above that hint at an end now or soon to the downward move since 7 June.  However, clearly, we need to be prepared for more downside - was the rally from the 21 June low just a kiss goodbye to the elliott channel, or will it double bottom and turn back up? If we do get more downside, we'll have to review the wave count and the technicals to see what they tells us at that stage.

11:36 BST - Dollar page updated

Please see here

21:56 BST - SPX Update

We had a bit of a rally today. Whether or not its over remains to be seen. There still remain a number of possible counts, both bullish and bearish.

Here are the 5 counts (see the 60 min counts for context). Remember that the counts shown in Options 1, 3 and 4 are interchangeable. There remain so many ways to count the decline from 1131.23, so I've just used each of those options to illustrate different bearish counts:

Option 1 - wave (ii) topped at 1131.23

SPX 6 min chart:

For this count, I'm looking at an expanded flat type of correction for wave [4] of i down. It may well have completed at today's high with a zig zag for (W), a zig zag for (X) and an expanded flat for (Y) ((Y) may have had a truncated 5th wave).  However, the 38.2% retracement level at about 1093 might still be a target. 

I've shown the alternative I posted earlier, with wave [4] topping at 1085.95 and the subsequent decline and rally being waves (1) and (2) of wave [5]. This would be invalidated if we move above 1085.95.

Option 2 - wave i of (c) of [ii] complete at 1131.23:

SPX 5 min chart:

This count shows a completed wave ii correction and the start of wave iii up within wave (c) of [ii]. Wave ii retraced 70.7% of wave i. Although it can be counted as complete at today's low, as labelled, it could still be an on going wave ii correction even if it takes out today's low. That would mean a re-labelling of the decline to a double zig zag as shown on the chart - today would have completed (or nearly completed) wave (B) of the second zig zag. Obviously, any further decline can't take out the start of wave i at 1042.17.



Also remember that its possible that 1131.23 was the end of wave (c) of [ii], in which case, the counts in Options 1, 3 or 4 may be applicable and we'd be in wave [iii] down.

Option 3 - wave [iv] of a leading diagonal completed at 1131.23:


SPX 5 min chart:

I've changed this count to the nested ones and twos that I previously showed on the chart for Option 4. Wave 2 may have completed at today's high with a zig zag for waves w and x and an expanded flat for wave y. If we take out the wave (2) high at 1099.64, then this count is invalidated. It might be that we then look to just a [1],[2],(1),(2), with (2) being an expanded flat type of correction.

 

Option 4 - wave [b] of minor Y within a wave [X] completed at 1131.23:

SPX 15 min chart:

This shows a completed wave [1] at 1074.63, with an expanded flat wave [2] in progress. Today's rally would have to be counted as 1 of (C) and the decline into the end of the day as all or part of wave 2 of (C). The target for the end of wave (C) would be between 1095 and 1109.

We still need to take out the (x) wave low at 1052.25 before its confirmed that we're in wave [c] of Y. 

For Options 1, 3 and 4, there is also the extending 5th wave count which would have today's high as wave 2 of a (1),(2),1,2 within wave [5]:

Taking out 1085.95 would mean it would have to be a (1),(2) of [5]. Taking out 1099.64 would invalidate that.

Option 5 - we completed wave (i) of [iii] at 1131.23:

SPX - 8 min chart:

The picture here is the same as shown on the chart for Option 2.

As before, if it takes out the low at 1042.17 (the end of wave [ii]) then this particular count will go but it may just mean we ended  a minor X wave at 1131.23 and that the drop from 1219.80 is forming a double zig zag rather than the single zig zag that completed at 1040.78. It would mean more downside near term, but longer term, would be bullish.

Have a great weekend!

20:07 BST - SPX Update

Here's a quick update on those bearish counts I posted earlier:

Wave [5] extending:

Still on, but invalidated above 1085.95 (though then it might just be we are completing wave (2) instead of 2).

Expanded flat wave [4]:

That looks back on with the nice push up we've been having. The possibility that we are in wave (2) of [5] is invalidated above 1085.95 and the expanded flat wave [4] becomes the only count on this chart.

Expanded flat wave [2]:

Still on also, but we probably need more of a rally to be able to think this is the right count.

Nested ones and twos:

Still on. The invalidation point for the third set is above 1099.64

17:49 BST - SPX Update

Its possible that on the count I showed earlier for a possible expanding flat wave [4], we've already completed wave [4] and have started wave [5] down:

SPX 1 min, wave [4] complete, now completing wave (2) of [5]:

This would be very similar to the extending wave wave [5] count shown at the above link, except that could be more bearish since it has nested ones and twos within wave [5].

15:46 BST - SPX Update

Still no significant rally so far. The bearish options updated from yesterday would count like this at the moment:

1 min chart, extending wave [5]:

1 min chart, in an expanded flat for wave [4]:

1 min chart, in an expanded flat for wave [2]:

Finally, there's the nested ones and twos shown in last nights Option 4 chart.

14:00 BST - ES Update

Here are two possible counts on ES, one bearish overall and one bullish overall.

The bearish count is essentially the one shown in the Option 4 chart for SPX. The bullish one relates to the counts in the charts of Options 2 and 5 on SPX, but adjusted for ES to take account of the overnight action.

ES 5 min chart: 

On the bearish count, the expanded flat for wave ii may well be in the works, with the [C] wave up due (I have it as (C) on the SPX Option 4 chart). On the bullish count, a rally today would be wave (B) of [Y]. It has to stay below the [X] wave for a double zig zag. If it doesn't, its possible the [Y] wave ended where I have B of the expanded flat, at the overnight low.

If we fail to rally high enough for a wave ii, I'd be looking closely at the nested ones and twos count shown as an alternative on that Option 4 chart for SPX, though of course, it may be that its a 4th wave as expected on the Option 1 count, or the extending 5th wave shown in the extra chart from last night.

11:50 BST - CPCE - Options Equity Put/Call Ratio

Just looking at my CPCE chart, we may have the beginnings of a new uptrend in the 5 and 10 day moving averages (I think these are a fairly standard means of smoothing out the movements in the CPCE itself, so no magic there), which would be overall bearish for the markets - see the red dotted lines at the right end of the chart below:

CPCE Daily chart:

Obviously its very tentative at this stage, but every trend has to start somewhere!

What I found of interest is that the recent high on 21 June occured at a level in the CPCE which marked a number of high points during the 2007-2009 downtrend in the markets (and the early stages of the new uptrend) - see the blue dotted horizontal line and the highs I've highlighted with magenta circles.

Clearly, the moving averages are going to move up and down within any new trend and we do have to be aware that they are currently at levels where previous lows have occured. It doesn't mean that the markets can't go lower (there is certainly scope for these moving averages to push further up as you can see from the chart), it just means we need to be alert for signs of a low. I find that the 10 day moving average often turns down ahead of a low - it doesn't always work out, but its worth keeping an eye on.

10:30 BST - Dollar Update

After looking like wave (ii) may have ended yesterday, the dollar displayed some weakness later, with price slipping through the bottom of the cloud. The warning sign I mentioned in the post shown in the link above did occur - as price rallied (from point a on the chart below), the lagging line failed to move above the price line - see how it stopped just under where I have the iv label - not a good sign for a rally.

However, whilst the lagging line (I've changed the colour to turquoise) did drop through the cloud, it was only briefly - it stayed largely within it, even while price remained below. This suggested that a more sustained drop was probably not on the cards.

Now, price has rallied today and this time, the lagging line has moved above the price line.

Here's a close up of the action on the 60 min chart:

Dollar 60 min in close up:

The rally today has moved price back into and slightly above the cloud and the lagging line is confirming this as potentially bullish by moving above prices of 26 periods ago.

You can see the elliot wave count - it looks better as a wave (ii) correction now, with that drop yesterday.

In ichimoku terms, we need to see price and the lagging line get above the cloud. We have a bullish cross of the turning line (blue) above the standard line (red) - its a weak buy signal since it occurred when price was below the cloud, but price can confirm it by getting above the cloud and taking the laging line with it. As before, once above the cloud, price needs to find support on the cloud and any pullback in price should not result in the lagging line falling below prices of 26 periods ago (if it did, that would again be warning that all is not well with the potential rally).

Here's the zoomed out view on the 60 min chart for the bigger picture of the wave count:

Dollar 60 min zoomed out:

23:37 BST - SPX Update

I don't know if anyone is following the ichimoku charts, but there have been some further developments on those charts since I posted them yesterday.

Here is the updated daily chart:

SPX Daily ichimoku:

You can see that both price and the lagging line have moved further away from the cloud. In my view, the inability of the lagging line to rally above prices of 26 days ago, despite the early June rally remains a bearish sign. 

Although the turning line is above the standard line, the latter is falling, as is price, and I suspect that the turning line will start dropping soon also if things are as bearish as they appear to be from this chart.

Turning to the 60 min chart:

SPX 60 min ichimoku:

Yesterday I said that I wanted to see price continue to drop through the cloud and the lagging line following it as well as staying below the price from 26 periods ago. That seems to be what is occuring, so far. Price has even come back up to the cloud and the turning line to retest them from below and failed. They have provided resistance, as they should in a downtrend. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't try again, but with the daily positioned as it is, it seems unlikely at the moment that any further retest will succeed.  Today was actually the third time price found resistance at the turning line - that paints a pretty bearish picture.

The lagging line hasn't yet dropped through the cloud, but at the moment, that's not a great concern, as long as it remains below prices of 26 periods ago.

22:12 BST - SPX Update

After yesterday's sideways action, we got some nice moves today. It was bearish, but not enough to rule out all potential bullish possibilities. Its also added a couple of counts for the bearish side because we didn't get a decisive enough retracement up that could be called a 2nd or 4th wave.

Here are the 5 counts (see the 60 min counts for context). Remember that the counts shown in Options 1, 3 and 4 are interchangeable. Its just that there are so many ways to count the decline from 1131.23, so I've just used each of those options to illustrate different bearish counts:

Option 1 - wave (ii) topped at 1131.23

SPX 6 min chart:

I showed yesterday what was possibly the start of wave (5) of [3] down and today we did, indeed go on to complete a 5 wave move down that would be wave [3] on this count. The rally that followed was a 23.6% retracement of wave [3] - enough for a wave [4], but I might have expected it to get to the 38.2% retracement level to be certain. 

The fact that it didn't raises the possibility that the rally was only wave 4 of (5), so we still have 5 of (5) to come (well, it seems to be well underway!). This means we would expect a wave [4] maybe sometime tomorrow. 

Another alternative is that wave [4] is playing out as an expanded flat so after today's decline into the close, we would expect a rally, perhaps up to the 38.2% level at about 1093.

Option 2 - wave i of (c) of [ii] complete at 1131.23:


 SPX 5 min chart:

This count makes the current decline wave ii of (c). I've amended the count given today's action, to show a single zig zag with a possible ending diagonal wave [C]. Obviously, it depends on wave (i) of [C] being a three - I think the waves are ambiguous enough to cater for that!

Also remember that its possible that 1131.23 was the end of wave (c) of [ii], in which case, the counts in Options 1, 3 or 4 may be applicable and we'd be in wave [iii] down.

Option 3 - wave [iv] of a leading diagonal completed at 1131.23:


SPX 5 min chart:

I'm still showing 5 waves down complete to 1085.31. This expanded flat count, which is updated from earlier, isn't out of the question, so I'll keep it on as a possibility (but obviously, the counts shown for Options 1 or 4 would go equally as well).

Option 4 - wave [b] of minor Y within a wave [X] completed at 1131.23:

SPX 15 min chart:

I've got two counts on this chart.

The first has wave [1] bottoming at 1074.63 and we are now forming an expanded flat for wave [2]. 

The alternative is what I showed earlier, that we are in a series of ones and twos down. I showed two sets this morning, and this had developed  into three sets this afternoon. This count would be invalidated by a move above 1099.64, although it could then be we were still in a [1],[2],(1),(2), but with (2) being an expanded correction (as shown in Option 3). That would only be invaildated by a move above 1116.67.

We still need to take out the (x) wave low at 1052.25 before its confirmed that we're in wave [c] of Y. 

For Options 1, 3 and 4, bear in mind the additional count I showed this afternoon, with wave [5] extending. Here it is updated to the close:

Taking out 1185.95 would begin to cast doubt on it. Taking out 1099.64 would invalidate it.

Option 5 - we completed wave (i) of [iii] at 1131.23:

SPX - 8 min chart:

The count I showed for this yesterday, putting us in wave iv of (i) up was invalidated with the move below 1077.74. However, until we drop below the wave [ii] low at 1042.17 this bullish option remains and I've changed the count to show wave (i) of [iii] complete and the drop from 1131.23 as wave (ii) of [iii].

As before, if it takes out the low at 1042.17 (the end of wave [ii]) then this particular count will go but it may just mean we ended  a minor X wave at 1131.23 and that the drop from 1219.80 is forming a double zig zag rather than the single zig zag that completed at 1040.78. It would mean more downside near term, but longer term, would be bullish.