Monday, 28 June 2010

22:23 BST - Dollar Update

The dollar is suggesting, for the moment at least, that it may hold the support area highlighted at the weekend.

Here is an updated daily chart. Note the slight bullish signs showing in the RSI, MACD histogram and Slow STO. However, it still has a lot of work to do if it really is starting a rally that will take it above the 7 June high of 88.708.

Here's the 60 min ichimoku chart:

Its managed to break above the cloud (just) and is above the turning and standard lines (blue and red, respectively). Also, the turning line is above the standard line. The lagging line is stuck below the cloud at the moment. Really, it needs to get above the cloud (as do the turning and standard lines) for me to have any confidence in a more sustainable rally.

I also need to see the first leading line (the blue outline of the cloud) get above the second leading line (the red outline) to get the cloud sloping upwards. At the moment, the rally that we saw today isn't entirely convincing and that's reflected in the position of the components of this chart.

Here's a 60 min elliott wave chart with a highly tentative count suggesting we've seen the low of the correction from the 7 June high:

As I've said above, its not completely convincing at present, so that low at 85.215 needs to be watched closely. A fall below it would probably mean there is more downside to go, as suggested by the alternative counts mentioned on the chart.