Friday, 25 June 2010

14:00 BST - ES Update

Here are two possible counts on ES, one bearish overall and one bullish overall.

The bearish count is essentially the one shown in the Option 4 chart for SPX. The bullish one relates to the counts in the charts of Options 2 and 5 on SPX, but adjusted for ES to take account of the overnight action.

ES 5 min chart: 

On the bearish count, the expanded flat for wave ii may well be in the works, with the [C] wave up due (I have it as (C) on the SPX Option 4 chart). On the bullish count, a rally today would be wave (B) of [Y]. It has to stay below the [X] wave for a double zig zag. If it doesn't, its possible the [Y] wave ended where I have B of the expanded flat, at the overnight low.

If we fail to rally high enough for a wave ii, I'd be looking closely at the nested ones and twos count shown as an alternative on that Option 4 chart for SPX, though of course, it may be that its a 4th wave as expected on the Option 1 count, or the extending 5th wave shown in the extra chart from last night.