Thursday, 24 June 2010

23:37 BST - SPX Update

I don't know if anyone is following the ichimoku charts, but there have been some further developments on those charts since I posted them yesterday.

Here is the updated daily chart:

SPX Daily ichimoku:

You can see that both price and the lagging line have moved further away from the cloud. In my view, the inability of the lagging line to rally above prices of 26 days ago, despite the early June rally remains a bearish sign. 

Although the turning line is above the standard line, the latter is falling, as is price, and I suspect that the turning line will start dropping soon also if things are as bearish as they appear to be from this chart.

Turning to the 60 min chart:

SPX 60 min ichimoku:

Yesterday I said that I wanted to see price continue to drop through the cloud and the lagging line following it as well as staying below the price from 26 periods ago. That seems to be what is occuring, so far. Price has even come back up to the cloud and the turning line to retest them from below and failed. They have provided resistance, as they should in a downtrend. Of course, that doesn't mean it won't try again, but with the daily positioned as it is, it seems unlikely at the moment that any further retest will succeed.  Today was actually the third time price found resistance at the turning line - that paints a pretty bearish picture.

The lagging line hasn't yet dropped through the cloud, but at the moment, that's not a great concern, as long as it remains below prices of 26 periods ago.