Just looking at my CPCE chart, we may have the beginnings of a new uptrend in the 5 and 10 day moving averages (I think these are a fairly standard means of smoothing out the movements in the CPCE itself, so no magic there), which would be overall bearish for the markets - see the red dotted lines at the right end of the chart below:
CPCE Daily chart:
Obviously its very tentative at this stage, but every trend has to start somewhere!
What I found of interest is that the recent high on 21 June occured at a level in the CPCE which marked a number of high points during the 2007-2009 downtrend in the markets (and the early stages of the new uptrend) - see the blue dotted horizontal line and the highs I've highlighted with magenta circles.
Clearly, the moving averages are going to move up and down within any new trend and we do have to be aware that they are currently at levels where previous lows have occured. It doesn't mean that the markets can't go lower (there is certainly scope for these moving averages to push further up as you can see from the chart), it just means we need to be alert for signs of a low. I find that the 10 day moving average often turns down ahead of a low - it doesn't always work out, but its worth keeping an eye on.
