Thursday, 24 June 2010

8:29 BST - Dollar Update

Since yesterday afternoon's post on the dollar, its pulled right back to the bottom of the cloud and the lagging line has fallen below prices of 26 periods ago on the 60 min chart:

Dollar 60 min chart:

If this is a wave (ii) (within wave [v] of minor 3) as I've marked it, then we should see the support from the cloud, for both price and the lagging line, hold and the dollar now push back up above the cloud, with the lagging line rising back above prices of 26 periods ago.

Looking at the elliott wave picture, there is a three wave decline from where I've marked wave (i) and its about a 61.8% retracement, so a perfect place for a wave (ii) to end.

A warning sign that we may continue down instead of pushing up in a wave (iii) will be if price finds resistance within or around the top of the cloud, and/or the lagging line fails to move above prices of 26 periods ago with any push up in the current price.

I'm watching thos one closely!