Monday, 28 June 2010

13:54 BST - Dollar Update

The dollar is also not giving very much away at the moment.

Its holding here, possibly for the reasons set out in my weekend post, but it hasn't really launched into a 3rd wave. This means, the risk of further downside remains for the time being.

Heres the 60 min chart:

I've marked on it some levels to watch. If we take out 85.215, the risk that we are in a double zig zag down or a larger single zig zag (see the alternate counts) will increase, though only taking out the low at 85.025 would rule out the main (i), (ii) count.

Taking out the high at 86.119 might be an early indication that wave (iii) up has started and that will strengthen if we take out the 86.415 high and the upper red channel line. Its no guarantee since we could still be in a (x) or (b) wave, but it would be a start and we could use a higher low as a warning that its not really wave (iii).

Here's the 60 min ihchimoku chart:

We've got a bullish cross of the turning line (blue) above the standard line (red) and price is above both and the lagging line has moved above the price line. However, its all still below the cloud, so its only a weak bullish signal at this stage. There's alot of work to do to establish a new uptrend.