Tuesday, 17 August 2010

11:04 BST - Dollar Update: 20 min chart

I've amended the count for the dollar that I've been showing on the 20 min chart (see yesterday's update), to put the high of wave iii at the high for the rally from the 80.085 low, at 83.016.  

The reason for this is that since we took out the low I had labelled as wave iv, it was necessary to switch to the alternate count I have been following and which I explained in the last update. However, for that, we needed a 5 wave move from the high for [C] of iv. Instead, we're getting what looks like a zig zag. That would mean I'd have to switch to a [W]-[X]-[Y] labelling for wave iv which would have been fine except that both [W] and [Y] would be zig zags, but [X] took out the high of [W], so the overall correction couldn't be a double zig zag, it would have to be a double three. However, for that, wave [W] needed to be a flat since wave [Y] looks like a zig zag. I couldn't label wave [W] in that way since within it, wave (B) didn't retrace at least 90% of wave (A).

I actually prefer this count now since at the 83.016 high, wave iii is about 1.618 x wave i. Also, within wave iii, wave [3] is about 1.236 x wave [1] and wave [5] is about equal to wave [1]. So, some nice fibonacci relationships on this labelling:

Dollar 20 min:

Apart from that re-labelling, there is no significant change to the important levels - this count putting us in a wave iv correction will still be invalidated if we take out the wave i high at 81.534.

You can see on the chart that we're at the 38.2% retracement where there is also support from the wave [4] of iii low. If that support fails, we could well slip to the 50% retracement level and then we would be in danger of getting to the wave i high and invalidating this count.

If it is invalidated, the prior alternative still stands, that we have had a wave (i) high (it would now be at the 83.016 high) and the retracement from there would be wave (ii), so could go alot deeper towards the 80.085 low. Obviously, it could not take out that level since doing so would invalidate that count, in which case, some of the more bearish alternatives noted on the dollar page would have to be considered as possibly in play.

So, we're looking for an end to a wave iv correction around the current levels, to be followed by a wave v move up fairly soon. Watch the 81.534 level for the invalidation of this count and if that happens, the 80.085 low becomes the level to watch.