Monday, 16 August 2010

10:36 BST - Dollar Update - 20 min chart

Looking at the 20 min chart of the dollar which shows the count off the 80.085 low, I'm thinking we may be getting an extended wave v up. You can see the bigger picture on the dollar page which I update on Friday night:

Dollar 20 min:

This count will be invalidated if we take out the wave iv low at 82.182. If this count is correct, we ought to see an acceleration up in wave [3] of v. I'd watch the low at 82.477; if taken out, it might be an early warning that this count is not playing out. If the labelling is wrong, it may be an expanded flat forming for wave iv which is a possibility I've mentioned before, ([A] would be the low marked iv, [B] the high marked (B)and [C] would be in progress).

This hourly euro/dollar chart seems to support more downside in euro/dollar and, so, more upside in the dollar index: its found resistance at the 50ma, the falling ichimoku cloud and the median line of the downward sloping pitchfork (its only a speculative one since the upper line isn't drawn from a pivot high). Obviously, the picture here will start to look less bullish for the dollar if we see these points of resistance start to get taken out:

Eur/USD 60 Min: