Tuesday, 17 August 2010

22:07 BST - SPX Update: 15 min pitchforks

Here's an update of the 15 min chart I posted earlier today (you can see the the earlier posts here and here):

SPX 15 min pitchforks:

The resistance at the intersection of the upper lines of the green and blue forks held well and with the 200ma, pushed prices down, almost back to the lower line of the green fork. That's not bullish action and may be confirming that we have seen the end of the rally from the 1069.49 low.

However, we really need to see price fall out of the green fork, perhaps re-test the lower line from below and for it to fall away from there before we can get too confident of this. Obviously, we need a confirming wave count too!

I've drawn in a new downward red fork, which may provide some guidance as to a possible path for price to take if we are now in a 3rd wave down, as the bearish wave count suggests. It may be that we see an attempt to break up above this fork first, as we saw with the blue fork when price rallied up to 1127.16.  However, this doesn't have to happen and if things get really bearish, we may just head straight for the median line of the red fork. We'll have to wait and see.

For the moment, the first aim is to break out of the green fork. If we had 5 waves down from today's high for the start of a new impulse wave lower, as provisionally labelled in tonight's end of day update, this shouldn't be too difficult to achieve very quickly.

If we're still in wave [c] of ii, then we may not break the green fork's lower line (or if we do it may only be briefly) and we may just head back up towards its upper line, which will likely result in the upper line of the blue and red forks being broken above also.

So, these forks may be worth monitoring along with the wave count as price action develops.