Tuesday, 17 August 2010

17:17 BST - SPX Update - 1 min bear count and 1 min bull count

The triangle break out provided a bit more than expected which is always nice. Now it looks like we could have a complete 5 waves up from the [B] wave low, although there could be a few more squiggles to come - difficult to tell when the market moves in a striaight line:

SPX 1 min from1129.24 high:

We've retraced nearly 50% and hit the 1096 level where wave [C] is 1.618 x wave [A] as mentioned in yesterday's end of day update. So, it would be a nice place for wave ii to end. The alternate count, by the way, may be less likely now - this retracement is fine for wave ii.

Obviously, what looks like a zig zag could also be a [1]-[2]-[3]. Here's one of the bullish counts from last night's update to show the bullish possibility here:

SPX 1 min - bullish alternate under Option 4:

To negate this we need to take out the wave [1] high at 1082.62 in an assumed wave [4]. Then we need to drop below the low at 1075.16, to rule out a [1]-[2]-(1)-(2). Finally, we need to take out the low at 1069.49.

Until we start to drop and take out these levels, the risk of more upside remains, in my view.