Thursday, 4 November 2010

20:38 GMT - SPX End of Day Update

The most bearish of the bigger picture Options, Option 1 on the 60 min counts page, was invalidated today with the move above 1219.80. That leaves Options 2 and 3 still open. Option 2 is bearish near term once we see an end to the rally from the August low. Option 3 is potentially very bullish, but may now be potentially very bearish if today's rally marks the whole of wave C on that count. You can see the possiblities under Option 3 as well as the bigger picture for the following charts on the 60 min counts page.

Whichever Option is playing out, I'm still looking for the end of the rally from the August low. I think it remains open as to whether we're in wave (v) or wave (iii) of that rally. I've separated the two out  for clarity. 

Here's the chart showing us in wave (v):

Chart 1: SPX 1 min - wave (v) of the rally from the August low:

Its possible that we've got a top in at today's high, but its also possible that today's high is only wave iii of (v) and we can expect a larger retracement in wave iv in terms of time, as well as price, next.

Here's a close up chart showing that possibility (its labelled as if we're in wave (iii)):

Chart 2: SPX 1 min close up:

Note the possibility on this chart that wave iv (or (iv) on the count shown on Chart 1 above) was actually at the low of 1183.56 so the 5 waves up that I've labelled from there (up to the red [3]) may be the end of wave v or (v). I'll be watching how the next pullback behaves for clues as to whether this might be the case.

If we do still have wave [4] or wave iv to come, then it has to stay above the wave [1] or i high at 1194.53. If it doesn't then the alternative I've labelled on Chart 2 may well be playing out. 

Chart 3: SPX 1 min - wave (iii) of the rally from the August low:

This is obviously more bullish than the count in Chart 1 above, although once wave (iii) is over, we should see a decent retracement in wave (iv). A 23.6% retracement would take us to about 1178 while a 38.2% retracement would be at about 1152.

So, for the moment, I think the main level to watch is 1194.53. If the next retracement stays above that level then its likely we're going to see a further high to complete wave (v) or (iii). If it moves below that level, it increases the odds that we may have seen a top, either to wave (v) or (iii) for the rally from the August low.