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Friday 5 November 2010

9:409 GMT - SPX : Counts from March 2009 and 60 min counts pages updated - despite yesterday's move, there is potentially considerable bearish risk to be aware of

With the move above the April highs yesterday, I've updated the Counts from March 2009 and the 60 min counts pages.

Although the trend remains up, which favours the bullish counts, there is a not insignificant risk that we may be at or near a potentially important top. 

You can see this on the chart of Option 2 on the 60 min counts page and the chart of the 5 wave impluse on the Counts from March 2009 page, which implies a move down in a Y wave which could take us to the 950  to 875 area. Also, on the bearish interpretation under Option 3 on the 60 min counts page (and as shown on the chart of the triple zig zag on the Counts from March 2009 page), we could be at or near the start of an even more significant decline.

However, as long as we're above 1039.70, the bullish counts are the most likely to be playing out (see the very bullish and moderately bullish interpretations  under Option 3 on the 60 min counts page).