Thursday, 4 November 2010

17:52 GMT - SPX Update

Here's the 1 min chart I posted earlier, which I've updated:

SPX 1 min:

We could well have seen the end of wave [3] of v, with a pullback in wave [4] now in progress. If so, the 23.6% retracement is at about 1209 and the 38.2% retracement is at about 1204, so those might be levels to watch for a potential low for wave [4].

If this is wave [4] and the labelling as shown is correct, we have to stay above the wave [1] high at 1194.53 in wave [4]. If we take that out, then the other possibility I mentioned in my earlier post, that wave iv should actually be at the 1183.56 low, may well be playing out. That could mean that wave (iii) or (v) has topped. If its the latter, that's likely to result in quite a significant decline.

Its also possible that we're still working on wave (5) of [3] as shown on this close up chart:

SPX 1 min - close up:

If we take out the low at 1214.05, that will suggest that wave [3] topped as shown on the first chart above (though it won't rule out the possibility that we're still in wave (4) of [3].

So, lots of possibilities, but for the moment, the focus still needs to be on the upside until such time as we see something clearly impulsive to the downside.