Thursday, 4 November 2010

14:16 GMT - SPX Update

Today's move means that Option 1 on the 60 min counts page should now be disregarded since all other indices have exceeded their April highs. So that leaves Options 2 and 3 on the bigger picture.

I'm still looking for a top to the rally from the August low. With the potential ending diagonal counts posted yesterday both invalidated, that leaves the following which puts wave (iv) back to where I had it previously:

SPX 60 min:

The labelling on the above chart is what I've been referring to as the less bullish option because it required only one more move up to complete the rally from the August low. The more bullish option has looking for the end of  wave (iii) rather than wave (v) of the rally. 

Here's a closer look at the count, with the more bullish option shown as the main labelling:

SPX 1 min - close up:

It looks like wave [3] could do with another push up to complete.

Note that wave iv or (iv) could very easily be placed under the low at 1183.56, in which case, if there is another push up to come, it may well complete wave (iii) or (v). I'll be looking at the character of the next decline once it appears that we've got 5 waves up from 1183.56 to try to determine if it may mark a top.