Tuesday, 14 September 2010

22:43 BST - SPX Update: 60 min bearish divergences - but more is required for the bearish outlook

The divergences which were apparent on the 60 min chart yesterday (see here) persisted today against the new high for the rally from the August low and we're starting to see the indicators rolling over:

SPX 60 min:

The weakness suggested by the failure of price to get back above  the median line of the fork last week and its failure to even reach it yesterday seems to have been confirmed by the additional failure today. We may now be seeing a breakdown out of the fork, although its too early to tell if this is going to be of any significance.

Still, this all provides a reasonable foundation for a down move (we can't say what it will be in terms of elliott wave counts until we see how it behaves). 

However, for the bearish case, we do need to see more confirmatory moves in the indicators on the next decline. 

The RSI needs to get below 50 and  then move quickly to oversold, with price also moving down (if it gets to oversold without any real downward price action, that's potentially bullish, as is not getting to oversold on a down move). The CCI needs to move swiftly below the zero line and fail on any re-test from below, before falling below the -100 line. The MACD needs to cross below zero. The stochastic needs to get down to oversold and preferably stay below the 50 line on rallies. The -DI line needs to start moving up and must cross above the +DI line and be confirmed by a rising ADX line.

So, the divergences we're seeing between the indicators and price is only half the story. To have any confidence that we've seen a significant top today, we now need to see movement in these indicators that confirms. Until they move to bearish levels (along with price dropping, of course), the risk remains that any price decline we see is only corrective and that more upside will follow once the bearish divergences have been worked off.