Tuesday, 14 September 2010

17:37 BST - SPX Update on the [i]-[ii]-i-ii and zig zag counts

So, taking out yesterday's high means wave ii on the [i]-[ii]-i-ii count didn't end then. 

From today's low its possible to count a double zig zag:

SPX 1 min - ending diagonal for [C] of ii:

However, it also possible to count the rally from today's low as 5 waves, which would be only wave A of (4) on this count. If that's the case, then on the next pullback we have to stay above the low at 1115.58. This is because wave (4) has to be a zig zag. This means wave B can't take out the low of wave A.

If we have completed the diagonal then we need to drop in a manner that is consistent with that. So far we haven't, so there must remain doubt on this.

Remember, this count is invalidated above 1129.24. 

If it gets invalidated, the bear count becomes the zig zag from 1010.91, which is currently labelled as being in wave [c] up:

SPX 1 min -  zig zag from 1010.91:

The 5 waves up from today's low that I've labelled on the first chart could well be the final 5 waves up within wave [5]  of v. Although I have it labelled as being only the first wave of [c], as I've said before, and as shonw by the alternate labels, its more than possible that its the whole of wave [c] (even if we don't take out 1129.24) so once this rally from the August low ends, minor 2 would also be at an end.

Today's high would be a nice level for the end of wave [5] since at that level, wave [5] is 1.236 x wave [1]. Also, at this level wave v is just about equal to wave i.

If today's high does complete 5 waves up from 1039.70, then a retracement at least is due. We'll just have to monitor how it moves down to try to determine if we saw the end of minor 2 or if it was only wave (i) of [c] of minor 2, with more upside to come.