Tuesday, 14 September 2010

14:53 BST - SPX Update on the bearish count and 5 waves up from 1039.70

The initial decline today seems to have marked out the rally from yesterday's low as a 3 wave move. Still, it could just be part of a wave (4) correction. Here's the ending diagonal/double zig zag count (see chart 1 in yesterday's end of day update for more context):

SPX 1 min - ending diagonal or double zig zag:

If we're still in the ending diagonal, wave (4) needs to stay above the orange dotted line I showed last night which is at about 1105-ish.

If we completed a double zig zag for wave ii at yesterday's high, we need to get down below 1101.53 (for starters) in a clear impulse wave.

On the count for 5 waves up from 1039.70 (see chart 3 from yesterday's end of day update), if this is wave (4) of [5] of v, we need to stay above the wave (1) high at 1110.27, otherwise, the count that shows a top for wave v at yesterday's high will start to look more likely. However, taking out 1105.15 would add more weight to that possibility. Here's the close up of that:

SPX 1 min - 5 waves up from 1039.70 close up:

In my view, until we take out the levels mentioned, the risk remains to the upside.