Thursday, 24 June 2010

11:00 BST - DAX Update

Its possible that the Dax may have completed its wave [ii] high on 21 June, getting very close to the start of wave [i]. As I pointed out in my post of 22 June, the Dax made a similar deep retracement of the first wave off its July 2007 high.

Here is the daily chart for perspective on the longer term count:

Dax Daily chart:

And here is the possible count into the wave [ii] high on the 60 min chart:

Dax 60 min chart:

Taking out the low at wave a of the triangle, at 5634.64 would invalidate the alternative bullish count on the daily chart as labelled, but it would not necessarily put an end to the possibility of an [X] wave forming as a flat (given the three wave drop from the high) or a double three, in which case, the June high would be a wave X and we would now see a flat, zig zag or triangle develop for the second three. 

So, we could see near term downside which might be substantial (especially if the next leg down is a 5 for  a C wave or a zig zag ), yet we would still be in a bullish count longer term.  I think we'd need to take out the low of the first [X] wave to avoid a third zig zag.

For the bearish count, we now need a clear 5 wave decline probably at minuette degree, that takes us below the 5634.64 low. As mentioned above, that wouldn't rule out the bullish possibilities, but it would still be a start for the bearish case.