Wednesday, 16 June 2010

9:28 BST Dollar Update

This is the daily chart of my favoured count for the dollar, namely that we are in an extending minor 3 and have completed wave [iii] of 3 (you can see the other counts on the dollar page):

Daily Chart:

You can see that the retracement from the high on 7 June has, so far, reached the lower line of the elliott channel for the minuette waves within [iii] (which is where a wave (iv) could end), as well as the lower line of the elliott channel for the minute waves and the upper base channel line for the minute waves (which is where a wave [iv] could end).

So, at the moment, the drop from the high could still either be wave [iv], or it could still be wave (iv) of [iii] as an expanded or running flat (if it fails to go below wave a of the flat).

Here it is on the 60 min chart:

This shows a possibly complete 5 waves down from the high for wave (a) of [iv], which means [iv] should be a zig zag (I have wave [ii] as a flat type correction, so this would be good alternation).

On the alternative, this 5 wave move down could be wave c in an expanded (or potential running) flat for wave (iv) of [iii] (I have wave (ii) of [iii] as a double zig zag, so again, good alternation).

I think we'll have to see where any rally now takes us, assuming that we have 5 complete waves down from the 7 June high. On either of the above alternatives, a rally would be due if 5 waves down are complete. 

Once we have a 5-3-5 up from the assumed low of the 5 wave drop, I'd be watching the top of the first of those 5 waves up. If taken out by a subsequent drop, it would make the move up a three wave move, suggesting its a (b) wave of a zig zag down from the 7 June high. Of course, there's no guarantee there since it may just mean that 5 waves up is extending, but it would be an initial sign.