Wednesday, 16 June 2010

17:42 BST - SPX Update

On the most bearish counts, Options 1, 3 and 4, we could count today's move off yesterday's high and the subsequent rally as the 4th and 5th waves which would end these moves (so moving the highs shown previously to today's high).

Here it is on a 3 min chart of Option 1:

SPX 3 min chart - Option 1:

Its into the next level of resistance at about 1119, but whether this will only hold it back temporarily or will end the moves on these three counts, remains to be seen - its possible that we still need another drop and rally to complete 5 up from today's low. Until we see an impulsive drop, the risk of higher highs remains.

On the more bullish counts, for Option 2, it seems too shallow to be wave [4] so I would count it as for the three bearish options, as the 4th and 5th waves of the 5 waves up from 14 June. This means we still need a larger wave [4] pullback at some point.

For Option 5, I'd probably count it the same as for the bearish counts, but its feasible that on the count I showed for this Option it was wave [4].