Tuesday, 21 September 2010

23;40 BST - Dollar Update

The dollar's not looking too good on the count that has it in intermediate wave (3) up. Today it has come very close to the low that I have labelled as wave (2) on the bullish count, as you can see from this75 min chart:

Dollar 75 min:

The alternate shown on the chart (its the first of the alternates I've had listed on the dollar page) implies alot more downside to come if that low at 80.085 doesn't hold.

Here's a closer look at how it may be counted on the bearish count:

Dollar 60 min:

If I count wave (E) of the triangle [B] wave as a triangle itself, then wave [C] of y looks like it might need one more low to complete. Its feasible that it could do that without breaching the 80.085 low, so this may be the best count for the bear case at the moment (unless the low is already in, of course).

If it can hold that low and take out 82.780, there's a reasonable chance that it'll go on to take out the high at 83.522. Whether that will be within the context of wave (3) up or whether it will still be the B wave on the alternate count, we'll have to wait and see as price action develops.