Wednesday, 22 September 2010

12:26 BST - Dollar Update

The dollar failed to hold the low at 80.085 so confirming that wave (2) of intermediate [3] up on the bullish case, isn't yet over. The count that I've been showing as an alternate is now the main count and puts us currently in wave C of (2) on the bearish case:

Dollar 75 min:

You can see that I've labelled it as if we're only in [i] of C at the moment. That might be too pessimistic, but a better time to judge will be once we have 5 waves down from the B wave high complete. At the moment, the decline from wave B isn' t quite 0.5 x wave A. It would be at about 79.200. If it gets there, or, better still, to the 0.618 x wave A at about 78.191 in 5 waves, that would look quite good for the whole of wave C.

I've also noted the alternative on the chart, which I mentioned in yesterday's update which is that the decline from where I have labelled wave B is actually only wave [b] of B, (in the form of a double zig zag) so we'd next get a rally in wave [c] of b.

Here's a close up from the wave B high:

Dollar 60 min:

Once we've completed wave (iii) of [i] of C down (if its not yet complete), then we should get a rally of sorts in wave (iv), perhaps to the 38.2% retracement level at arounf 81.100. 

Anything much above that, especially if we break impulsively above the wave iv triangle and that area of congestion becomes support, would start to suggest that the alternative labelled may be playing out. The other alternative would be  that we completed wave C (the latter would involve some relabelling since currently the labelling assumes we haven't seen a complete impulse wave down from the B wave high - the best solution may then be to label the decline from (1) to A shown on the 75 min chart as 3 waves for wave W, followed by wave X and then 3 waves for wave Y).