Wednesday, 11 August 2010

7:31 BST - Dollar Update

Currently, the dollar looks like 5 waves up from the low at 80.085, followed by 3 waves down to the 61.8% retracement level which I mentioned in my previous post. From where I have marked wave ii on the 20 min chart below, it looks like 5 waves up, which could be wave [1] of iii:

Dollar 20 min:

While its starting to look like the dollar may have bottomed at 80.085, I think its too early to disregard the risk of further downside. There are various possibilities which I mentioned in my first post yesterday and on the Dollar page (see menu tab above). You can also see the bigger picture showing how the above chart fits in under those links.

For the moment, if the move up from 80.641 where I have labelled wave ii, is wave [1] of iii up, then that low at 80.641 cannot be taken out. If it is, we may still be in wave ii, but then we have to stay above 80.085, otherwise, what we have seen from that low cannot be the start of an impulse wave up in a new minor 3 uptrend.

If we have started minor 3 up, the next level I would like for to be taken out is 82.085, for the reasons mentioned in my first post yesterday. If we get a good wave iii up, that shouldn't be a problem - if wave iii is going to be a 1.618 extension of wave i, it would reach about 83.018.