Tuesday, 10 August 2010

10:09 BST - Dollar Update

Looking at this 20 min chart of the dollar, (showing the count from the wave (iv) of [v] high at 81.977) its possible that we have seen the end of intermediate wave (2) down;

Dollar 20 min:

You'll see from my last update that I mentioned the possibility that where I had marked a 2nd wave of wave v down, at 80.945, was actually the start of wave v and the drop from there was all or part of wave v. That possibility may be what played out in the end, as you can see from the above chart.

On the provisional labelling I have from the 80.085 low, we haven't yet got 5 waves up, but it looks like we might get that shortly. However, even if we do, we need to be wary of the possibility that this rally is just part of an expanded flat wave iv correction and that we have another down leg to come. This arises because from where I have [W] within wave iv, looks like 3 waves, so taking the count from there, the drop to 80.085 could be a [B] or [X] wave.

Warning bells would start to ring if we take out 80.425 before making a new high above 81.137, if my count from the 80.085 low is correct.

Another risk to watch out for on the downside: this low at 80.085 could just be wave (iii) of [iii] of C. Here's a larger view to show you what I mean:

Dollar 60 min:

You can see that from the wave [ii] high at 84.557, to where I have marked wave [iii] at 82.085, could just be wave (i) of [iii], making this low at 80.085 wave (iii) of [iii]. If we end above 82.085 on this rally, that possibility would be excluded because this rally would be wave (iv) of [iii] under that possibility and wave (iv) mustn't end above the low of wave (i).

So, for this initial move up, we shouldn't fall below 80.425 before we move above the current day's high at 81.137. Assuming we complete 5 waves up from the low on my labelling, the critical level is then, of course 80.085 which must hold.

Once we move above 82.085 we ought to be safe from the possibility that the low at 80.085 was only wave (iii) of [iii].