Tuesday, 10 August 2010

17:34 BST - Dollar Update - 5 wave s up complete?

The dollar can be counted as 5 waves up from the 80.085 low. Here's the 20 min chart I posted this morning, updated:

Dollar 20 min:

Until we drop below the wave [4] low, wave [5] has the potential to extend. If we do drop below that level, if my labels are correct, we should be in wave ii down. 

You can see that a possible target at the 4th wave within wave [3] is also the 61.8% retracement of the move up from 80.085. Obviously, a wave ii retracement will have to stay above 80.085 if this was an impulse up and not a C wave in an on-going correction within a continuing downtrend.

I'll be on the lookout for a 3 wave pullback that ends above that level. Anything that looks too impulsive to the downside should be taken as a warning that we may not have seen an end to the downtrend just yet.