Thursday, 19 August 2010

18:47 BST - SPX Update: 15 and 60 min charts

Here's an update of the 15 min chart I posted earlier (see here):

SPX 15 min pitchforks:

Price has moved straight down to the lower line of the pink fork and the median line of the red fork, without much hesitation. It looks like the action we saw within the blue fork after the 1127.16 high.

You can see that price has bounced a bit from the lower line of the pink fork. The bounce may find resistance at the median line of that old blue fork which still seems to be in play. 

Ideally, for the bearish case, I'd like to see any bounce stopped at the area of the median line of the pink fork. 

You'll see that I've drawn in a new upward green fork - this will have to be watched. Price may at some point, try to get to its median line, this could certainly happen if we have completed the 1st wave down and get a 2nd wave retracement.  If its only a 2nd wave retracement and not something more bullish, this attempt ought to fail - remember that's what I pointed out happened in relation to the upward black fork in the earlier post (see here) and its also what we seem to have seen with an upward fork on the 60 min chart (see below).

What would be very worrying for the bear case is if we start breaking above the median line of the upward green fork. That would be bullish action unless it resulted in an immediate drop back down.

Finally, here's the 60 min chart updated from last night (see here):

SPX 60 min pitchforks:

The reason I'm posting this is to show the upward grey  fork that I've drawn on from the 1 July low which has been broken by today's move. You'll also see that price failed to get up to the median line of that fork, which was bearish. Its possible that we'll see price rally back up to test the grey fork from below. If the bearish counts are playing out, the rally should be rejected by the lower line of the grey fork.