Thursday, 19 August 2010

18:17 BST - SPX Update: More upside in this 2nd wave?

Here are three charts on which I've marked three different ways to count the decline from 1129.24 and/or the move from the low at 1069.49:

SPX 1 min - expanded flat 2nd wave correction:

On this count I think it unlikely that we will see more upside in the 2nd wave. If its correctly labelled with wave (C) at the 1099.77 high, its possible that could have ended a wave (W) in a double three correction from the wave [1] low, but that would mean we'd have waves (X) and (Y) still to come. Supposedly, double threes occur to extend the time taken by a correction, but when you look at the time taken for wave [1], it doesn't seem to be necessary for wave [2] to take any more time than it has on this labelling.

So, if this labelling is correct, I'd consider further upside in wave [2] unlikely.

SPX 1 min - zig zag 2nd wave:

On this count too, its possible that we've only seen wave [W] within wave ii, but again, the time issue mentioned above would suggest its unlikely.

SPX 1 min - (A) and (B) of a flat for [2] complete, wave (C) to come:

On this labelleing I think its very possible that the market has one more move up to complete the 2nd wave correction. This labelling assumes it would be a quick move up in wave (C), so would not take up too much more time. It could even start today.

So, while things looks very good for the bears at the moment, I think that one more launch up on the third count shown above can't be ruled out. 

If we've completed the (B) wave on this count at today's current low at 1070.66, then after the next rally up forms 3 wave from there, we'll have to watch closely what happens next - the low of 1070.66 would have to hold. Obviously, if we haven't yet completed wave (B), we'd have to do this following the next 3 wave move up from wherever wave (B) ends.