Thursday, 12 August 2010

17:03 BST - SPX Update - 1 min chart

Its starting to look like we may have had a wave [3] (or [5]) low today. The retracement up from that low looks too big to be a wave iv of 3 or a wave 4 of (5) (see my earlier post), though of course, they break no rules so the count shown earlier could still be correct. However, here's an alternate to consider:

SPX 1 min:

Making wave (4) a triangle ending at 1091.02, means that today's opening drop was wave (5) and wave [3], so we'd now be in wave [4] up, with, possibly, a leading diagonal for wave (A) of [4].

Its possible that today's drop was only wave 1 of (5) - taking out today's low at 1076.69 without a deeper upward retracement first would bring in that possibility.

If we're in wave [4], ideally it won't get too much above a 38.2% retracement level at about 1096 - the congestion formed by the triangle may well provide resistance to a wave [4] advance. Wave [4] can't end above the low of wave [1] at 1111.58. If we exceed that level  then we are likely in the alternate count mentioned on the chart.

If we're in the alternate count, making the low wave [5] and wave i, we'd expect a higher retracement in wave ii,  perhaps to 61.8% of the decline from 1129.24, which is at about 1109.

If we've formed a wave [3] or [5] bottom today, we should get a decent retracement before we take out today's low. If we don't and we just drop again,  the count shown in the earlier post or the possibility of an extending wave (5) mentioned above will arise.