Thursday, 12 August 2010

14:57 BST - SPX Update: 1 min chart

If this were to play out as we would expect on this labelling, we need a  another drop to complete 3 of (5) of [3] , then a 4 and 5 to complete (5) of [3]. We'd then see a wave [4] rally before a decline in wave [5] to complete wave i down:

SPX 1 min:

Once we see a complete wave 3 of (5) down (assuming it hasn't yet completed - it doesn't look complete, but squiggles are difficult to count sometimes and/or can be misleading), the wave 4 rally must not end above the wave 1 of (5) low at 1088.62. If it does, then we'd have to assume we'd seen the end of wave [3] and would be retracing up in wave [4]. In fact, any move above that level without a new low first is going to make me think a short term bottom (on the bearish count) is in.

Note also the alternative count, that the drop today will be wave [5] and i, not wave [3]. If that's the case, the retracement would be wave ii and is likely to be deeper than if its only a wave [4] retracement.