Friday, 6 August 2010

14:25 BST - Dollar Update

This is more like what I was hoping to see from the dollar (see my last post here):

Dollar Index 15 min chart:

This chart shows the move from what I have labelled as wave (iv) of [v]of minor C within intermediate wave 2 (see the first chart in this update for the bigger picture).

We could now be in the final stages of the decline, unless something considerably more bearish is playing out. 

I've labelled today's high as wave [2] of v of (v). Its possible that where I have [2] is actually the end of wave iv, with [Y] of iv being a more complex affair than I have labelled. That would mean  its possible that from where I have wave [2] of v is actually all or part of v - just a straight line thrust down to complete the decline. 

However, I've said before, with the trend firmly down, its sensible to wait for something impulsive to happen to the upside before looking for a long position - the risk is that something much more bearish is playing out, so until we see something impulsive to the upside, the risk of further downside remains high.