Tuesday, 6 July 2010

16:07 BST SPX Update

The moves up from 1010.91 can be counted in various ways: a single zig zag, a double zig zag or the start of an impulse. Taking out 1032.95 negated the completed double zig zag count from Friday, but these other possibilities remain valid.

Here's the single zig zag and the alternative (1), (2) count on a 1 min chart:

I've marked wave [C] as complete, but its quite possible there's another high to come. Wave [C] is about 1.618 x wave [A] on my labelling.

If we're in a single zig zag, then if we made 5 waves down from 1131.23 to 1010.91 (see Count 1 on the chart of Option 1 from Friday night), we're probably going to see an X wave here before another zig zag up to achieve a deeper retracement for wave ii. 

If we're in a 4th wave (see the chart of Option 2 or Option 5) , this single zig zag may well be the whole of the retracement. 

If we're in a 2nd wave but only retracing the decline from 1082.60 (see Option 4), this retracement (nearly 50%) may be enough to complete it).

And here's the double zig zag on a 1 min chart:

It shows a further high required, but could be complete at today's high. If this count is correct, then its likely we are only in a 4th wave retracement (see Options 2 and 5) or the 2nd wave retracing only the decline from 1082.60 (see Option 5).